IMPACTS ON THE ENERGY AND ON THE SEA

Summary
The document is divided into two parts:
The first of them, explores one of the “Structural Forces” carried out in the document “Global Trends” that revolves around the environment, and its relationship with energy. The discussion focuses on the commitments that States take in order to reduce the net emissions on the greenhouse effect by means of the application of mitigation measures based on the transitions to new technologies, taking as a reference indicator limit global temperature of 1.5°C. This discussion transcends raised by the document about the changes in “the consumption and production of energy for the developing countries can grow their economies without offsetting the carbon reductions of the developed countries” (2021: 30).
As an integral part of the analysis, we have incorporated in the document of a particular interpretation of statistics and demographic studies as part of the development of social, political, economic and strategic. Let us remember that there is no existence state without a territory, but the same must necessarily be composed of a population, without it there is no possibility of defense sovereign, legal, or military. And the development of this population, both in political, social or economic, will determine the viability and sustainability of the nation-States.
In that same line of argument, a second part we analyze the redistribution of power between the people's Republic of China (RPCH) and the united States of America (USA) and which appreciates in value the importance of the domain of the seas and oceans to determine the likely impact of these Trends on the stage South Atlantic and antarctic in terms of climate change and maritime governance, with a view to the next ten years. The purpose of this second part is to outline a possible path of a national maritime strategy as a palliative to the impacts.
FIRST PART
The energy question
At the end of October of the current year, it will make the United Nations conference on climate change (commonly referred to by its acronym, COP26, in Glasgow), in a context where energy represents 73% of global emissions, agricultural activities for 18%, and the industrial activity of the 5% with a base of generation is based on oil, natural gas and coal (about 80%).
Chart 1: The generation of greenhouse gas emissions by activity/ gas consumption
Source: https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/world-greenhouse-gas-emissions-sankey -chart-2019_2.jpg
Notes: The energy sector including transport, electricity and heating, buildings, manufacturing and construction, fugitive emissions and the combustion of other fuels.
The other main sectors that produce emissions are agriculture, such as cattle raising and the cultivation of crops (5,8 GtCO 2 e, or 12%); industrial processes, chemicals, cement, and more (2,9 GtCO 2 e, or 5.9 per cent); waste, including landfills and wastewater (1,6 GtCO 2 e, or 3.3%); and land-use change land-use and forestry, such as deforestation (1,4 GtCO 2 e, or 2.8%). Within the energy sector, the generation of heat and electricity, is responsible for most of the emissions (15,6 GtCO 2 e in 2018, or 31.9% of the total emissions of greenhouse gases), followed by transport (6,9 GtCO 2 e in 2018, or 14.2% of the total emissions). and manufacturing and construction (6.2 GtCO 2 e, or 12.6% of the total emissions).
Now, the global trends are being affected by forces and global processes of significant relevance: a supply of concentrated energy and a demand that is growing exponentially, which promotes the production/generation, accumulation/transport, the domain of new technologies of “transition,” the governance of the schemes (energy, climate change, etc) relating to large consumers of fossil fuels, those who, by their development require larger volumes of energy (China, India, etc), and those countries clearly dependent.
Through this complexity, it is necessary to emphasize the concept that brings together all these arguments that opens a path between the two positions considering an increase of the interdependence between the efficient use and preservation of the environment and sustainability at the time (seeing a greater demand): the energy security.
By definition, there are few countries that have an array of energy security based on own resources, the vast majority is forced to import energy (Klare; 2009: 12) which increases their vulnerability. Therefore, what energy security strategy, it is possible to implement with a view to 2030 in order to generate a sustainable development, given that the energy of this dynamic global is a “good” that you want to produce, characterized by an imperfect market, governed by monopolies/ oligopolies and increasingly affected by subsidies. By analyzing all these conceptual axes is observed:
- A tendency purely cooperative, multilateral nature where the developed countries give ground in pursuit of the environment healthy and clean, allowing the less developed countries to incorporate technology; (see the case of the US and China, for example)
- A system of self-sufficiency through active policies around the funding, incorporation of technology etc
- A vision neorealist of energy security through strategic partnerships to adopt measures aimed to generate a sustained development (bilateral/ regional/ local etc).
In the XX century, there was an area of general consensus, where the discussions of energy security were mainly focused on the supply of energy (Goldthau; 2010: 10), as a consequence, the access to the resource, the transfer and the supply of gas-oil were strategic objectives for the foreign policy of the developed countries. In consequence, an object of geopolitical competition, and the core countries is ensured: 1) diversity of suppliers and routes of energy supply; (2) the establishment of strategic partnerships in those countries considered to be “in transit” referred to as Oil Choke Point (choke points or bottlenecks), such are the cases of the Strait of Hormuz, or the relevance geostrategic territories to ensure the pathways of access to resources by means of the construction of gas pipelines-pipelines.
Thirty years ago, the advanced economies were the main importers and consumers of oil, in this way, they defended a balanced position between its energy security and security of supply concibiéndolos as concepts are inseparable. So, your action international politics is not only directed towards a clear influence in international institutions, but also had the connotation of a geopolitical defined areas of influence. However, the new positioning of emerging powers has changed the traditional concepts and energy security is increasingly important for the developed countries, spreading to emerging economies that are impacting on the global power by pressing to create new spaces for manoeuvre, with strategic options spreads (unilaterally and/or multilateral) to address the security of energy supply (Blázquez; 2012).
In the current context, the energy security and security of supply are vital to the economic and social development of the countries. However, the economic and political environment that shapes the design of the energy security has changed a lot since the first oil crisis (Blázquez; 2012).
The emerging economies of today are the actors that are important from the point of view of energy demand and, therefore, increasingly more relevant in the exercise of energy security:
- The first dilemma for the governance is that you can't design an international architecture without the active participation of these economies: the directly proportional relationship between the rates of population growth, economic growth and consumption in the energy levels.
- The oil is the main source of energy in the world, but also the most vulnerable: (1) the oil is the energy that is commercialized with greater intensity in the international markets; (2) the oil reserves are concentrated geographically in only a few countries; and (3) the oil trade has to deal with the limitations of the Oil Choke Point as the Strait of Hormuz and Malacca.
The energy sector in fast-moving stresses the importance of a comprehensive approach and dynamic energy security. The attacks in Saudi Arabia (2019), the humanitarian crisis and the pandemic SARS-CoV2 stressed that the "traditional" risks to the energy security had not disappeared, but have multiplied in terms of cybersecurity, emergency socio-sanitary (endemias, pandemics, epidemics) and the new extreme weather conditions (droughts, hurricanes, etc). These considerations have a bearing on the new energy sources of “transition”, requiring a greater control on the part of governments to 2030.
In summary, the fluctuations in the international prices, the increasing levels of demands of the emerging markets, political instability and security in the major producing countries, as well as the challenges of the “energy transition”, the climate change, the domain of new technologies, smart grids and new spaces of governance at the international level, it forces countries to develop a active foreign policy and a redesign of the public policy of security and defense (out of character inter-agency) to 2030.
- The production of shale gas the united States is maintained in spite of the Covid, affecting the dynamics of the global markets, trade flows, and security. On the other hand, the annual growth of the u.s. production slows down to a breakneck pace seen in recent years, according to official estimates up-to-date resources and availability of oil, the future scenario 2030 reinforces this country as an exporter of both fuels (EIA; 2021).
- The EE. UU contested spaces of power with the traditional producers, such as the (OPEC) OPEC ( + ), and with the new infrastructure of gas pipelines generated by Russia (which, despite the sanctions and restrictions imposed by the EU) are actors with large competitive advantages.
- The new capabilities of the bidders cause pressure on revenues from hydrocarbons in some of the major producers (the forum of the OPEC +), highlighting the need to build new arrays to diversify their economies.
- The world still relies heavily on the supply of oil from the Middle East. The region remains the largest net supplier of oil to the world market, as well as a major exporter of LNG. This means that one of the trade routes, the more traffic, the Strait of Hormuz, this geographical enclave retains its geo-strategic position for trade of energy, especially for asian countries such as China, India, Japan and Korea, whose economies are dependent on imported fuel.
- The EU promotes policies of diversification to reduce dependence on Russian gas, but this means to increase gas imports from Algeria, Egypt, and Kazakhstan, among other markets. If you assume incorporate higher levels of LNG should be importing it to Malaysia or Qatar (here adds a new variable geo-strategic, that is to say, the distance between the centers of consumption vs. centres of supply).
- Projecting the current policies scenario, by 2030, 80% of the international oil trade will have as final destination the asian continent, driven in large part by a doubling of the import needs of energy in India and China (EIA; 2020; 24).
- Address the need for energy, China has accelerated the construction of 18 nuclear reactors (The World Nuclear Industry; 2021: 71) helping to improve the supply of energy and reduce the dependence of the central coal for the generation of electricity (greatest generators of greenhouse gas emissions). It should be stressed that this decision is because China has declared to be carbon neutral by 2060 (still can't compensate for the energy demand) and the main supplier of Coal is Australia (a country that has entered into a strategic alliance AUKUS).
S. XXI cycle of energy transition
The energy security it is understood as the availability of energy sources appropriate, trusted and affordable prices to meet the demand, and fuel the economic growth (Kohl; 2008: 10). Here takes on a new strategic importance that revolves around how it will be produced and how energy influences within a region in the redefinition of the political and economic relations with other States. These concepts have a connotation geopolitics that determines how it will be secured energy supply, taking as reference the SDGS this must be reliable, insurance and sustainable (not only sources of gas and oil, but a matrix diversified on the basis of clean energy).
This new scenario mark the following challenges to 2030:
- The total demand for fossil fuels grows exponentially in the short-term (EIA; 2021). However, it is also significantly lower after 2030, with a significant slowdown in aggregate demand, and then falls slightly to 2050 (see box below).
- The demand for natural gas is about 600 billion cubic metres (bcm) (or 10%) lower in 2050, mainly reflecting lower projected consumption in the energy sector and industry in the economies of emerging markets and the developments in Asia.
- The use of coal is recovered more quickly to short-term and remains ahead of last year but the projections 2030 highlighted the downward trend in the much faster after 2025.
- The total CO2 emissions are around 2 Gt lower by 2050. The difference in the fall is in the electrical sector, where emissions are below the 25 per cent between 2020 and 2050 (compared with a decrease of less than 10% in the WEO-2020). The generation from solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power in 2050 is around 15% and 20%, respectively, the most high according to the report consulted.
Chart 2: Demand for oil, natural gas and coal in the declared Policies (Scenario STEPS).
- A new transition policy, that is to say, the actions undertaken by the governments to go, abandoning the consumption of fossil sources for those that do not generate negative impacts on the environment (greenhouse gases), mainly in the generation of electric energy, for the industrial production and logistics (transportation).
- Innovative technology applied to the production of clean energy (who has the technology to produce energy and how they are funded countries), cobra significant value to the minerals which are critical/strategic.
- While there are clean sources of generating energy (wind, solar), these have limitations around the scale, therefore, the problem is the role of the mass storage.
- The pandemic delayed the continuity of the operational plans of the conversion of energy systems in transition: 1) the need for electrical safety, sustainable, and 2) the new politics of energy transition in the generation of innovative technologies that strengthen the economic recovery (IEA; 2021).
- There is not one single strategy of development in the transition energies (IEA; 2021 and Net ZERO By 2050; 2021), in this way, governments promote active policies in order to build an energy future that incorporates the framework conditions for channeling investment, support innovation, expand the spaces of regulation, to consolidate the objectives of short -, medium-and long-term. All countries start from different levels of development.
- Alternative sources of energy generation (transition: wind, geothermal, solar, biogas etc.), while reducing the dependence on fossil fuels even have limitations with respect to the scale, blink, costs, and the incorporation of strategic minerals for the production of computers (hence, the main challenge is the technology). Hydroelectric energy is a solution to the problems of scale, but raises a new question: 1) the cooperation between the countries (for example: crisis in the region of Tigray by the management of the blue Nile); 2) the impact on the environment reinforced by the large accumulations of water; 3) the displacement and consolidation of new frontiers productive agricultural (flood fields etc); 4) increasing investment in the construction and distribution of the energy generated.
- Nuclear energy requires high levels of technological development, security, costs (investment, deployment, maintenance, etc) and of capital, but it turns out to be one of the sources that higher level of compensation with respect to fossil energy in terms of scale.
From the perspectives outlined above, the period 2020/2021 marked a historic milestone very important for the sector, the product of the mechanisms in place to contain and mitigate the spread of SARS - CoV2 economies suffered significant falls in their productive capacity. Despite this, in the world is evidenced by records of sales of electric vehicles, a sustained growth in renewable energies such as wind and solar power, determining the basis for a new energy economy motivated by: 1) political, 2) new poultices to the technological innovation as the pillars to promote actions aimed at the reduction of climate change.
The trend for 2030 is that these dynamics are mutually reinforcing, plating a path towards the consolidation of new schemes productive, whose protagonist is the “Electrical Energy”. The main challenge for countries is to expand the use of this kind of energy to meet the daily needs of a mass character (mobility, heating, lighting, etc) and move the consumption of hydrocarbons only to the industrial production (in a first stage). We observe the following phenomena:
- Higher levels of participation of the electrical energy
- The increase in the demand for electricity requires the integration of productive and financial in respect of the generation of energy, are not criteria exclusive.
- Diversification (nuclear, geothermal, hydroelectric, solar, wind power, among others) in the generation of energy (stable, reliable, sustainable).
The energy security provides the framework to generate the reliability and accessibility of electricity, becoming one of the key strategies for the future development and well-being of the States. The IEA builds the analysis of a scenario of zero-emission by 2050, with a projection based on increments of the world GDP by around 40% between 2020 and 2030, but the supply of total energy falls around 7% (EIA; 2021).
The highest levels of consumption of electric energy and its extension towards the end uses in addition to the development of more efficient technologies sets the course for a change in the behavior of consumption. So the energetic transitions have direct impact on social and economic issues in individuals and communities. The dynamics of change is to identify people as active participants.
In this order of ideas, the report (EIA; 2021: 110) argues that the sources of emissions of energy supply will grow by two-thirds between 2020 and 2030, the growth of the solar energy, wind power, while hydropower and nuclear also contribute to the diversification of the productive matrix. Today, approximately one-quarter of the total energy supply comes from fossil sources, or based on emissions of greenhouse gases and this is reduced by about half by 2030, according to projections in the report (EIA; 2021; 111).
Chart 3: Transition in the total supply of global energy supply by 2030 (according to projections by the stage NZE 2050).
Note: Other forms of renewable energy include the energy, marine, and geothermal. Bioenergy moderna includes biomass, liquid biofuels and biogas derived from sustainable sources; it excludes the traditional use of biomass. The coal, oil and natural gas low emission include the combustion of fuel equipped with capture, storage, and use of carbon (CCUS for its acronym in English), as well as the fossil fuels used for non-energy purposes. Do not report the use of waste non-renewable.
Figure 3 relates the growth of the supply of energy, low emission of greenhouse gases (clean energy) with a sustained decrease in the demand for fossil fuels. In addition, we observe an abrupt drop around the consumption of coal, which is positioned approximately at around 50%. In the period analyzed, these falls are 2,500 million tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce). The oil initially bounces from the lowest level seen in 2020, but soon begins to decrease and falls to 72 million barrels per day (mb / d) in 2030 (EIA; 2021; 113).
However, when analysing the tender, it is observed that the generation of electrical energy grows to sustained rhythms to 2030. If the graph evidence at a glance that the changes are not substantive, the main conclusion that you can get from it is that these changes involve a high rate of changes in the stock of the world's computers that consumers buy (vehicles, appliances, etc).
Chart 4: Average energy investment annual 2016-2020 (according to projections by the stage NZE 2050)
Note: The energy infrastructure includes electricity networks, systems, loads, vehicles, and storage of CO2. The categories of buildings, transport and industry, including investment in energy efficient applications, electrical systems and end-use for low emission fuels.
For 2030, the vast majority of the investment will be to transition technologies, of which a large proportion is focused on generation with an annual investment total of around USD 0.5 billion in the past five years to almost $ 1.7 trillion in 2030. Figure 4 defines the projections of incremental levels of investment to achieve the objectives of reduction of emission of the greenhouse gases that produce the greenhouse effect.
In addition, the total capital expenditure in the energy sector increases to about 2.5% of the annual GDP in recent years to reach 4.5% of GDP in 2030, and then has a tendency to the low of 2.5% in 2050 (EIA; 2021; 113). In contrast, the record of investment in the supply of fossil fuels was USD 1.2 trillion in 2014, while the projections in investment in energy and infrastructure respective increases of about $ 0.4 billion to more than us $ 0,9 billion in 2030.
According to this trend, the graph 5 illustrates the growth of key technologies for the generation of wind and solar energy, the massive sale of electric cars, among other data features. The policy of distribution of computers sustainable requires commitment to citizen, given that clean technology is distributed affecting the way in which it operates the society, highlighting new habits of consumption, the different forms of transfers, the change of the daily activities and even as to plan the cities (charging stations, electric power lines, new materials, conductors, etc).
Chart 5: Increase of the key Technologies by 2030 (Net ZERO By 2050; 2021: 15).
Although the measures described above seem untimely, these are changes that come accompanied with the “energy transition”, and can only be built through government decisions cost-effective, transparent and equitable access to be managed successfully. Governments, nations should ensure the access of clean energy focused on each one of the citizens through the mechanisms of access to energy efficient appliances, new industrial processes, the implementation of sustainable energy in the households, the increase in market economies to extend access to modern services, among others. These measures can only be managed by means of the adequacy of public policies that are enabling technology that include, among other things, tax credits (from the supply and demand), loans, subsidies to strategic companies. (Net ZERO By 2050; 2021)
The energy transition represents new challenges for States and for the companies that will be converted their businesses, frames, production, technology transfer, investment levels, professionalization of human resources, legal regimes, among others. For 2030, the potential production of household appliances, vehicles, new types of fuels (storage, distribution, etc), new building systems, research and development (R&D) incorporate nearly 16 million workers (Net ZERO By 2050; 2021: 16). This is a conversion which will be gradual as the levels of production of fossil fuels and/or its derivatives decrease by promoting the transfer of labour, new work skills, which, without doubt, refer you to a new debate about the systems of training and employment.
Beyond the new categories that underpin the safety, energy-based power generation and contraction in the production of oil and gas will be of singular importance in States and companies. As above described are very small markets and concentrates. In the case of hydrocarbons, the share of OPEC in the oil supply increases of around 37% in the past few years to 52% in 2050, by defining a new peak than at any time in the history of the oil markets (Net ZERO By 2050; 2021: 23).
In contrast, the per capita annual income of the oil and natural gas in the economies producing falls about 75%, from USD 1800 in recent years to $ 450 in 2030, which could have a social impact. All this implies a force of change in the breast of the producer countries, in this regard, by way of example: the Kingdom of Bahrain is developing a program of restructuring of the productive capacity to promote economic development. This initiative was facilitated by the price of crude oil internationally and by the crisis of 2011, which was extended to all the countries of the middle east “arab Spring”.
Another dimension that refers to the energy security, is that the new productive processes require substantial quantities of critical minerals and their demand increases proportionally. The market of critical minerals has as its protagonists metals such as copper, cobalt, manganese, and several rare earth metals and their projection of the growth is nearly seven times between 2020 and 2030. The income of these minerals are greater than the revenue of coal long before 2030.
According to this situation, new opportunities are created for the mining companies, as well as for those that transform the raw materials in the different links of the value chain. All of this, it generates a new geopolitical dimension through the challenges posed by the energy security that includes the volatility of prices, the costs associated with the transitions to energy investments around the new availability of R & D, or new questions about whether the deal may or may not follow the pace of the growing demand. In this context, figure 6 contrasts the supplies of oil and minerals critical of the involvement that they have in the generation of electrical energy (solar and photovoltaic) is extremely necessary for the production of batteries, computers, electrical facilities, energy services, networks, etc
Chart 6: indicators of energy security (Net ZERO By 2050; 2021: 24).
Critical Minerals
In the patterns observed in the TWENTIETH century, the product of the imbalance between the supply and demand of minerals were compensated with increased financial resources, substitute materials, new technological developments and areas of influence or intervention focusing on the variations in the prices: actions that justified the energy security of a State.
Since 2016, the global investment in the energy sector has been consistently higher than in the oil and gas supply. The faster you move the transitions to clean energy, the wider it becomes this gap, and as a result, the electricity is converted into the central scenario of the financial transactions related to the energy.
The new dynamic that holds the strategic minerals are dissociated more and more from system of energy-intensive fossil fuels, at the same time, which focuses on the availability of the materials and the technology in them applied. Such a change, she also looks heavily influenced by the new demands for products that integrate to a new array of consumption (from the perspective of micro). This has a direct impact on the development strategies of each country, while a generation system based on photovoltaic panels, and the distribution of wind farms do not require fuel to operate, are prone to spend large amounts of resources for the construction and subsequent operation (from a global perspective/macro).
As you increase the demand for clean energy competition intensifies for the materials, the figure 7 is ejemplificador in this sense. A relevant piece of information is that the production and operation of an electric car consumes more than 200 kg of metals, exhibiting, for example, the Nickel, Copper, Manganese and Lithium, among others, while a self-conventional consumes about 50 kg in Addition, a wind farm requires 9 times more resources than a gas plant of the same generation capacity.
These proportions of critical materials may vary in their combination depending on the type of technology applied. Lithium is a resource that is extremely important for the development of batteries and accumulators on the times, but as you increase the use of clean energy, these will also be limited and replacements for materials suitable to meet the increasing energy needs as super-conductors (graphene) or new systems of accumulation.
Chart 7: The rapid deployment of clean energy technologies as part of the energetic transitions implies a significant increase in the demand of minerals (The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions; 2021: 6).
Note: kg = kilogram; MW = megawatt. The values for vehicles are for the entire vehicle, including batteries, motors and glider. The intensities for an electric car is based on a cathode 622 NMC (nickel-manganese-cobalt) 75 kWh and an anode to a base of graphite. The values of the offshore wind energy and land-based system of synchronous generator permanent magnet direct drive (including cables matrix) and the system builder induction of double power, respectively. The values for the coal and natural gas are based on plants, ultra-supercritical and gas turbine combined cycle. Actual consumption may vary according to the project according to the technology choice, the size of the project, and installation environment.
Mining has a strategic role in the generation of renewable energy, for example: for a wind turbine integrates coal, lead, lithium, nickel, copper, iron, and aluminum among other minerals. It also requires a large amount of copper and aluminum for electric networks and, finally, the copper is essential to all activities related to conduction of electricity, depending on the availability of current technology. The sectors of wind and solar are great seekers minerals, further emphasizing its link with the development of clean technology.
Currently, the level of technological development, the gradual extension of clean energy and economic stimulus for investments (R & D, new scientific developments, etc) do not comply with the demand that is required to transform the energy sector (in terms of the international obligations that converge gradually to the reductions of emissions of greenhouse gases), a trend that in the short-term mean higher costs of “transitions” and a delay in the change in the energy matrix. As could be seen in the previous section, the outlook is favorable with respect to the increasing demand for minerals, which poses great challenges that revolve around the availability and accessibility to ensure the electrical supply.
In the case of the lithium-ion batteries, the intense competition is recurrent in the market, the sustainability of the projects is subject to the learning curve of technology that affect costs significantly and that these have a correlate in economies of scale for the continuity of production. Lithium has gained space in appliances, massive, pc and technological equipment; such massiveness, in addition to contributing to the environment through awareness, contributes to the fall in prices. This implies that the cost of the minerals as raw material is greater in proportion to the total cost of the battery, which represents in some cases 50-70% of the total cost of the battery in front of the 40-50%, five years ago.
The prices of the minerals could have a significant effect on the final product, as well as a doubling of the price of lithium or nickel would induce an increase of 6% on the total costs of the batteries (The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions; 2021:12). The cycles of the strategic minerals respond to levels of sensitivity very high.
Furthermore, the sensitivity in the cycles of development of the minerals creates unique opportunities, but also significant challenges. If the elements that make up the material are modified and/or replaced as a product of “energy transition”, or improve the processes of recycling, recovery rates or extending the curve of production possibilities allowing the exploitation in conditions not foreseen, and even contemplating a shortage of supply, as occurs in rare earth (neodymium), the entire chain of production and consumption (regardless of whether they are States, Companies, Individuals) must have the capacity to absorb this dynamic.
A critical feature of the present stage of critical minerals is consistent with the climate goals committed by States, which are gradually inserted into the value chain meet the expectations of supply with projection to 2030. These are markets that are not prepared to withstand energetic transitions accelerated, due to:
- Geographic concentration of minerals: the first level of concentration is given the geolocation of minerals, unlike gas or oil. For example: The Coltan is a mineral composed of columbite-tantalite, their higher concentrations (about 80% of reserves) are found in Central Africa. Columbite is the mineral of columbium, also known as niobium. Tantalite is the source of the tantalum metal. Tantalum is a metal that is a conductor of heat and electricity, highly malleable and resistant to corrosion. It is a key component in electronic products, especially the capacitors (devices that store and regulate, or cushion, electric charges) that are used in mobile phones and electronic, automobile, computers, digital cameras, and other electronic devices. It is also used to create alloys carbide in hard metals for use in cutting tools and other industrial applications. The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and the Republic of China (China) were responsible for around 70% and 60% of the world production of elements of cobalt and rare earths, respectively, in 2019 (EIA; 2019).
In 2020 the reverse of Lithium globally amounted to 80 mn metric tonnes (U. S. G Geological Service), inside of which, only five countries account for the greatest number, to know: Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, the united States and Australia. Although, there are also resources in Afghanistan, China, Canada and Mongolia (Christmann et al., 2015). Within the first group, the majority of these reserves are located in the salt flats of “closed basin” being the most relevant in the extension of Bolivia, Chile and Argentina, which account for 80 % of total world reserves.
The second rich source of Lithium is the “pegmatites” (LCT) that embody the 20% of the total reserves that are located in Australia, Zimbabwe, Brazil, China and Portugal. Although there have relieved the existence of resources of pegmatites in other countries, such as, for example: Afghanistan, Austria, Canada, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Finland, Ireland, Russia, Spain, the united States, and Uzbekistan (Christmann et al., 2015), which have not been exploited in its entirety.
Before these determinations geographical, there is that to consider, the global demand for Lithium carbonate, in 2020 was 58.800 tn, with a compound annual growth rate (CARG) of around 25.5% compared to the same period of the previous year, at a value of 10.400/10.900 U$S/t. The increase in the consumption of this mineral is associated with the manufacture of batteries for electric vehicles with a projection of demand that will be strongly increased in the near future. In some cases, a single country is responsible for about half of the world production.
In the second place, to observe the operations of processing, where China has a strong presence in all areas. The participation of China in the refined is around 35% for nickel, 50-70% for lithium and cobalt, and almost 90% for rare earth minerals, making investments is very important in Australia, Chile, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Indonesia, marking a trend.
The concentration levels of minerals entail difficulties for the supply of value chains, due to internal crises, interruptions in production, trade restrictions, and new technological developments. The best example is the conflict of Coltan in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (institutional weakness state, conflicts over the ownership of the land, wars over ethnic identities are not resolved generates that is agnostic to the leadership of tribal, among others).
Among other strategic minerals is uranium, although its market is small and concentrated, the quantities of mineral resources are greater than perceived commonly and are related to both market prices as the cost of extraction. Added to that its production increased by at least one quarter in the last decade due to the mineral exploration, the world consumes about 62,496 to generate 353,812 Mwe and continue to grow due to the new energy enterprises.
Finally, the behavior of the strategic minerals is highlighted by: 1) high levels of concentration, 2) supply chains and production complex, 3) are sensitive to volatility of price and risk that may arise out of physical interruption, 4) are achieved by restrictions on commercial or other developments in major producing countries. The graphic 8 exemplifies the great diversity of these minerals.
- Development projects in the medium and long term: due to the peculiarities of the market and minerals the average of generating mining (discovery to first production) has been around for 16 years (The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions; 2021). This process creates uncertainty regarding the ability of suppliers to increase the production in the event that the demand to skyrocket quickly.
- Decrease in the quality of resources: the concerns relate to the quality and the effort required for their extraction.
- Higher levels of control in relation to the environmental and social performance: The production and processing of mineral resources gives rise to a variety of environmental and social problems that, if not properly managed, can severely affect the local communities and disrupt their production. Consumers and investors increasingly require companies sourcing minerals that are produced in a sustainable and responsible manner.
- Increasing climate risks: mining activities have a harmful impact on the environment, the lithium and copper tend to generate impact on water of considerable magnitude. The exploitation of rare earths in Africa, China and Australia has high levels of temperatures and floods pose major challenges to ensure sustainable supply. Government policy makers have to see these actions in order to compensate for the levels of supply of critical minerals and their level of environmental sustainability to evaluate their continuity.
Chart 8: The production of many minerals for energy transition today is more concentrated geographically than that of the oil, or natural gas (The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions; 2021: 13)
Energy governance
Governance is inherent to a process of participation that seeks to gather the necessary consensus to redesign the international system of energy with a view to 2030. The production of electric energy often depends on the local governments (due to the proximity and geo-location of the resource, although its distribution and consumption affects third States), emerge in this context many points of disagreement with respect to regions, and then at the global level.
The main effort is in creating schemes of cooperation to develop a structure that will benefit both the countries, producers and/ or consumers. The multilateral approach has established regulations and mechanisms of compensation of character and multi-and bilateral, tending to create regimes, forums and bodies with limited powers and efficiency, being the exercise of a hegemony energy the main source of maintenance-management evidencing the structures and power relations underlying, noting that:
- The energy governance is a well public global and, therefore, should create the conditions for it to be sustainable in the long term (Goldthau, 2012). This includes scope of local, regional and global affect not only the objectives of SDGS (Transparent, sustainable, efficient, and accessible), but in addition to what States should ensure the energy security.
- The energy governance is fragmented and heterogeneousin terms of institutional and international politics (Keohane and David, 2011; Florini and Dubash, 2011), marking the common spaces of groups of consumers (developed, emerging, and dependents), and producers in the various forums, intergovernmental organizations whose problematic deal with geopolitical issues, supply (transport), and generation.
- Growing demands unsatisfied, sustainable increase in consumption on the part of emerging economies (China and India), coupled with a renewed awareness for the care of the environment in the generation of clean energy, free of emissions of greenhouse gases. Each of the organizations have agendas, economic, environmental, social, political, institutional, civil, energy, such as:
- The energy efficiency (International Renewable Energy Agency-IRENA-, National Administration of the Atmosphere and Oceans NOAR)
- Organisms that incorporate new questions: as the Global Alliance for the Soil for Food Security and Adaptation to Climate Change, as well as the Mitigation of their Effects (GSP)
- Intergovernmental organizations (International Energy Agency, OPEC, OPEC+), Organization of Organisms Arab Oil Exporters), global standards, (Letter of the Natural Resources), Platforms and Forums of dialogue (International Energy Forum), agreements differentiated ( International Partnership for Cooperation in Energy Efficiency, a Forum of Countries Exporters of Gas.), and the initiatives of the Organization of the United Nations (International Atomic Energy Agency, Sustainable Energy for All, Convention of the United Nations Framework on Climate Change in 1992).
- On a regional scale, there are different models of cooperation, for example, in the European Community (Community of the Treaty of Energy), and in Latin America and the Caribbean (Latin american Energy Organization and PETROCARIBE)
- The G-8, a forum that includes the majority of consumers world's most important, but also includes Russia as a major producer;
- The various groups that represent the world climate change regime (transnational civil society, NGOS, etc.);
- Bodies of the economic system-international financial, CAF, IDB, World Bank, that is to say, to international organizations that promote resources with the premise of improving the energy efficiency and to accelerate investments (Green Bonds) in clean energy, primarily in consumer countries in the developing world.
This heterogeneity manifests an increase among the interdependence of all the actors involved in the governance, thus suggesting an increase in the needs and security of energy. The main restrictions that presents the current governance system are in the multiplicity of agencies (with different levels of extension and theme) that tend to operate as moderators between a system of supply concentrated, a growing demand and the negative impacts on the environment-climate change, conditioned by the asymmetries of each agency from a structure of power (creating new spaces of dependence).
Such cooperation schemes interdependent, in addition, have the challenge of creating new opportunities and integrated into a market where the clean technology becomes a new and important area of investment and international competition; countries and companies are fighting for a position in global supply chains.
The international context before the gas crisis
The gas crisis that emerged in the fall of europe, it is a fact to be a carrier of the future, that was not attended to in relation to their importance, given that the events that are taking place almost daily in european energy markets in the future should provide for a joint action of the state by part of the EU; on the contrary Brussels has manifested itself in two opportunities that both electricity and gas markets completely private where the EU cannot and should not intervene (economic liberalism).
The Protocols of the Kyoto protocol (1997) and the Agreement Paris (2016), in addition to the nuclear accident at the plant Fukushima – Daiichi accident in 2011, were decisive factors for the European Union and the United Kingdom (secesionado of the EU on 29 January 2020 -Brexit-) implementation of final recommendations proposed by the report of the Committee on Research, Technological Development and Energy (A4-0354/98), the EURATOM Treaty (2000) and the final report of the Green Book (2002) intended to generate “a european strategy for security of energy supply”.
In these documents, it is recommended the suspension of the activities of the nuclear power plants of the countries that make up the European Union (EU), particularly in Central Europe and the Mediterranean. Being exception of France, which has turned to nuclear power as main source of energy matrix in the last few decades. As a solution, the EU and the participants of the Paris Agreement have agreed penalties for CO2 emissions, commonly known as CO2 emission rights or E. U. ETS (a measure of penalty for the broadcast) that today exceeds 64 Euros or 70 or$S, and thus increase the cost of all fossil fuels, and the companies producing the energies that depend on such raw material.
Chart 9: Energy cost Vs Fines CO2 (Agreement Paris).
Source: Trading Economics. Available in: https://tradingeconomics.com and https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/indicators
Chart 10: The matrix european energy and the projection of demand expected for 2018
Source: IEA International Energy Agency. Available in: https://www.iea.org and in Library: https://www.iea.org/topics/energy-and-water
Also not helpful to the current crisis, the oil prices for the region, to which we must add taxes, which are increasingly high and always turning against fossil fuels in all parts of the world, but in the European Union currently amounts significantly, in addition to the EU ETS (2 EUROS per liter of gasoline special).
Source: ENERGY LIVE. Available in: https://www.energylive.cloud and The World Nuclear Industry (2021) Status Report 2021. Text available in: https://www.worldnuclearreport.org/
In this sense, it has effectively in the prices of the electricity generation, as can be seen in figures 9 and 10, respectively, depending on the type of fuel NOT eco-friendly that is used in a greater proportion will be their fines by the EU ETS Agreement Paris. The wholesale Market of electricity production in the Union was not different in their balance, on the contrary, reacted more violently.
Source: OMIE. Available in: https://www.omie.es
Source: OMIE. Available in: https://www.omie.es/es/spot-hoy
It is inferred that this crisis, which has caused shortage of energy is a consequence of poor decisions (which in his time were denounced both by US and the RUSSIAN FEDERATION), and who disregarded the realities of geopolitical and geo-economic world of the time. The reality indicated the technological transition from fossil fuels to clean energy, being the intermediate solution proposed, the use of GAS, an abundant resource only in Russia, the middle East and South america. Moreover, it is not evaluated correctly the stock of reserves, together with the magnitudes of the production capacity. In effect, it has become essential to the import of the cited resource, as evidenced by the different sources of economic variables.
Figure 11: Cost of Energy in the European Union.
Source: Bloomberg Goldman and Sachs Global Investment Research. Available in: https://www.goldmansachs.com/careers/divisions/global-investment-research/
In the face of these conditions, it has been added to the fall in the production of Natural Gas within the european territory as a product of the difficulties generated by the extraction of gas from the Netherlands, one of the largest deposits of europe, which caused serious damages as a by-product of the extraction system of the shale gas (pumping of water through the shale).
Source: I.C.E. (Informe de Coyuntura Energética). Disponible en: http://www.energyconsi lium.com/index.php?uri=ice
In addition, these actions increased the level of vulnerability of the EU to cope with the growing demand, pushed measures that affected their energy security by importing CNG and LNG, which redundo in greater dependence and increases costs.
Source: Quarterly Report Energy on the European Gas Market. Available in: https://www.europeangashub.com/report-presentation/quarterly-report-on-european-gas-markets-3
In this scenario, France and Norway are the exceptions, although France is notable for having resorted to the nuclear energy more than any other country in the world in the last decades. It currently has 58 power plants in operation and one under construction.
To do this we must add the naval fleet atomic French, integrated with a carrier-class General J. De Gaulle airport with two reactors Thompson, and ten submarines atomic much SSBN (missiles ICBM) as SSNS (attack and control). The sum of the above introduces us to a total of 70 atomic reactors in use and activity
Sources: Nuclear safety authority and Ministry of Ecology of France. Available in: https://www.emol.com/noticias/Internacional/2018/11/28/928864/Donde-quedan-los-58-reactores-nucleares-de-Francia.html
In 2019, France covered almost 71% of its electricity needs with nuclear power. Plants have an average age of 36 years old, and the last reactor went into operation in 1999. In addition, it is the largest producer of nuclear power in the world and has one of the best technologies in the recycling of used fuel, to be a key element for the development of the program nucleas French. This competitive advantage allows you to set himself up as the sole exporter of energy to Europe. To this must be added that along with the United Kingdom are the only two nuclear powers, not belonging to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT – 1 July 1968).
In addition, the group state utility EDF (French), is indebted in 42,000 million euros and must invest some 100,000 million by 2030 to continue exploiting the oldest reactors. France has not yet decided whether to construct new nuclear power reactors. This decision has been postponed and will be made by the new government gaul after the next elections in 2022.
For its part, Norway, in recent years, developed its energy matrix based exclusively on fossil fuels, but with a potential conversion in terms of new forms of production related to the neutrality of the CO2. So all the wells of oil extraction in Norway, they stop being productive you become in the deposits of the CO2 that is pumped out and sealed.
Source: Euroestat Available in: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/visualisation-tools and in https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/infographs/energy_monthly/enmonhly.html?geo=EU27 _2020&language=EN&detail=1&nrg_bal=EXP&unit=THS_T&siec=C0100&indic_nrg= nrg_cb_cosm&dataset=nrg_cb_pem_RW&chartOption=&time=&chart=&zoom =&start=&end=
Even so, the situation of Norway in this matter, is extremely complex. While it provides almost 20% of its gas production, the United Kingdom and the EU, its reserves fall annually at an alarming rate, which suggests that in the medium term will only serve to self-sufficiency.
Source: FX Empire: Market News & Forecast. Available in: https://www.fxempire.com. Daily update available at: https://www.fxempire.com/commodities/natural-gas (FREE EXAMPLE)
Referred to the exception to the rule European (which we will pick up by another carrier of the future), in different ways, and at different rates, member States have begun accelerated the dismantling of the support atomic of their nations, with emphasis on the nations of Eastern Europe (Hungary, the Baltic countries, Rep. Czech, Slovakia, Poland, etc), all of them with the unstable Russian nuclear technology; where in particular should be considered in the analysis two nations, Germany and the United Kingdom.
The paradigmatic case in this issue is Germany, which, being an exporter of technology atomic, you opt to get rid of her, then in the event of FUKUSHIMA. You can't ignore the economic dependence on the EU (that is your engine), as well as the financiers of origin austro-germans (the world bank built-Austria-Luxembourg, Liechtenstein and Switzerland), in addition to this, Germany is the state of pivot, which clearly articulated the global geopolitical towards Russia.
In addition to this, Germany is the largest exporter of the production and technology of the European Union can not get rid of the coal due to its energy requirements that depend heavily on its automotive industry, shipbuilding, robotics, etc
The European Union, in this way, since 2011, by the unilateral decision forced by the events of Fukushima, rebuilt its energy strategy, based on policies for the prevention of risks has not led to clear alternatives, and without forecasts on the part of the protagonist's strategic scenario, the U.S. The emergency plan prepared was the conversion urgent to plants producing power-to-GAS oil, either CNG or LNG or LPG, on the basis of an infrastructure materialized in pipelines or vessels recalificadores and a progressive suspension of the power plants to coal to 2038.
The answer for the transformation to Compressed Gas and Liquefied, it was not planned by the EU, where the partners opted for different solutions, all of them, as evidenced by the trend scenario (SCENARIO 2 WORLD ADRIFT doc TG).
For the decade of the 70's and 80's, Germany had a plan of approach between the GDR-RDF and the former USSR in the generation of gas infrastructure, giving you the possibility of access to Russian gas to Europe, this action benefit to both parties. On the one hand, we generated the conditions of accessibility to the resource, to Europe and on the other, the russians obtained the know-how for the construction of gas pipelines in the form of free – gas to Germany by pipes to the USSR -), this agreement, stood by US, in particular by the Administration of Ford and Nixon, drawing a new map of energy in the continent.
It is for this reason that both Denmark and Germany raised the emergency, the two projects. A Wind Energy project subsidized installed in the Baltic and in the Black Forest in Germany (Westphalia) and a second project that revolved around the construction of new pipelines.
Already in 2004, it was also in talks with the so-called North Transgas and gas Pipeline to europe, North; also known as the German-Russian gas Pipeline, a gas Pipeline in the Baltic Sea; the October 13, 2005, the arm of exports of Gazprom, Gazprom Export, signed a contract with the German company gas Wingas, a joint venture of Gazprom and Wintershall (subsidiary of BASF, GERMANY), to supply 9 billion m3 of natural gas per year for 25 years, was born in this way, the NORD STREAM 1.
In turn, on 16 June 2006 Gazprom and Danish company DONG Energy signed a 20-year contract for the supply of 1 bcm of gas per year to Denmark, while DONG Energy will supply 0.6 million m3 of natural gas per year to the Gazprom subsidiary, Gazprom Marketing and Trading, in the United Kingdom.
On 1 October 2009 the companies signed a contract to double the delivery to Denmark. The total cost of this work is estimated at nine billion euros ($10 billons dollars).
Character of the circumstances of the blackout european atomic and in addition to the responsibilities arising from the Agreement of Paris, diversify the system seemed in their time more in line with the geopolitical reality, given that he was still in the power of the Kremlin, President Dmitry Medvedev (2008-2012), more eurocentrista and diplomat than its predecessor, Vladimir Putin.
Born then, the Nord Stream II, which has two gas pipelines with a total capacity of 55,000 million cubic meters per year from the Russian coast through the Baltic sea to Germany, parallel to the Nord Stream 1, but doubling the supply of gas to both Denmark and Germany. The consortium that built the Nord Stream 2, is formed by Gazprom together with the French company Engie SA, the German Uniper and Wintershall, austria's OMV and anglo-Dutch Shell.

Source: Gazprom and ENTSOG. EUROSAT. ATLANTIC COUNCIL. University Of Oxford. Available in: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/visualisation-tools
In front of the implications of geopolitical and geo-economic which represents the development of Russia's energy and added to the re-election of President V. Putin (2012), the united States imposed economic sanctions on the companies involved in the construction of the same, all of them from the Administration of Donald Trump, alerted by the DoD.
However, the sanctions have not had the impact that was expected given that almost all of Europe, and the main strategic partner of the USA (the United Kingdom) participated in the project and favor of the Russian gas. So the 10 of September of 2021 is completed the construction of the Nord Stream 2 and connected to the gas pipeline to the pumping station, German and Danish, respectively. With this, we presume they rushed in immediately four issues:
First. Denmark is transformed directly in the “Exporting” of LNG from the Russian natural gas. In keeping with this, the main company's Danish maritime transport MAERSK transformed a large part of their fleet ships gaseros or regasificadores and sum a direct investment to pass on to their container ships to methanol and gas value of 1,400 million dollars.
In addition, Denmark is converted together with Germany in the first exporters and developers of equipment and wind turbines of large marine and terrestrial.
Second. Is transformed to the Russian Federation in the new Saudi Arabia of Europe, and with it the domain of the GAS market along with QATAR.
Source ICE – DW Available in: www.dw.de
To have the transport of 55,000 million cubic meters per year only on the Nord Stream 2, that gives us MM BTU 1.978.417.266,18 year, taking the value volatile MMBTU us$5,94 we are given that for a single gas pipeline in the Russian Federation receives something like U$S 333.066.880, to which we must add the other six pipeline operations (including the YAMAL), according to the price of gas to Europe and other partners dan annually 2 to $ 6 billion to the Russian Federation, only transport. The volatility of the market led to the October 15, 2021, 1000 m3 of natural gas quoted at$1920. But the values of the gas shoot daily, by which the european crisis deepens.
Source: Euroestat Available in: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data /visualisa tion-tools and in https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat /cache /infographs /energymonthly /enmonthly .html? geo= EU27 _2020&language=EN&detail=1&nrg_bal=EXP&unit=THS_T&siec=C0100&indic_nrg=nrg_cb_cosm&dataset=nrg_cb_pem_RW&chartOption=&time=&chart=&zoom=&start=&end=
Source Thomson Reuters. https://graphics.reuters.com https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com /gfx/editorcharts/USA-NATGAS-PRICE%20DECLINE/0H001QENT7RC/index.html y en Enlace dinámico de precios y mercados https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-natgas-track-highest-since-2008-global-prices-soar-2021-09-28/
In the market at the End of the TTF in the Netherlands for the whole of the EU, the price of gas came on October 7, 2021 to$1,200 in the forecast of the markets, futures, and$620 for 1000 M3 of GAS. In this situation, Russia dominates the market with its soft power. And on the basis of current price, if the NORD STREAM 2 Bombeara its production of GAS, this would represent the sum of U$S 34.100.000.000 for the 2022; but if you take a reference to the future of U S$1.200, the sum amounted to U$S would be 660.000.000.000.
This value represents the income of a single pipeline. Which would leave the gas pipeline YAMAL (Ukraine and Poland) as wasteful and extremely unhelpful. The samples of the actions of the soft power Russian make you feel daily, given the lack of approval for the Nord Stream 2 by the Authority, European and Germany, which require the sale of the pipeline to a third party, maintained this position is likely to occur in an energy crisis in the winter.
There are objective conditions for a new Maidán, let us remember that in the years 2004 –the Orange Revolution– and 2014 –Euromaidán– there were a series of demonstrations by pro-pro-europeans and in the opposition, where the population is expressed in the form of civil disobedience, leading to the fall of the government pro-Russian Yanukovich.
Current conditions, geo-political, with the invasion of Crimea, the separatist pro-Russian Donetsk and Lugansk, the pressure of the European Union and the almost very likely disconnection in 2024 (under the conditions of contract signed) of the gas pipeline YAMAL passes through Ukrainian territory, the more the pressure of the military exercises near constant NATO and the U.S. in this territory, ensure, that the winter may result in a shortage of natural gas to Ukraine and all of Europe, and the refusal to Russian to upgrade or renew JAMAL, can leave it to the population of Eastern Europe frozen as it happened in 2014. In the case of Poland where the YAMAL has a deviation or branching whose terms expire in 2023.
Therefore, the situation of the provision of energy to this area will cause serious social and economic problems. Unlike the crisis of 2014, the reservoirs and/or accumulation of natural gas are scarce, and up to zero, due in large part as a consequence of the strong european summer with record temperatures of 48.8° Celsius, these reserves were used to shovel the excess demand of electrical energy, since the summer of 2021 with little activity of winds that leave evidence of the vulnerability of the wind farms in Spain, Denmark, France and Germany who saw limited the capacity of power generation.
Also, you can't ignore the effects occurred by the pandemic by the Covid 19, which, with populations hastiadas and almost broken at the microeconomic level, also envisioned economic and political crises across Europe.
However, the higher levels of vulnerability for the production of electricity and its distribution are Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain (P. I. I. G. S.). These economies are in a gradual recovery, since they have suffered from the financial crisis of 2011 with an unusual hardness, the product of the weakness of their financial markets, and the limitations generated by the external debt.
Also, its energy security depends on the supply of gas from Algeria through the MEDGAZ – MAGHREB that basically feeds the P. I. G. S. for their meet their energy needs of industrial and household have interruptions due to increased costs, political conflicts, and the renegotiation of contracts for the operation. As you can see in the pictures above, consuming more than U$S 200 Mw/h. This situation leads inexorably in the general increase of prices of the BTU.
Third. Actions to replace the Russian gas or GEN or CNG, by LPG or tankers regasificadores, as is the example of Poland and Spain, have made it impractical to perform its operation and in the energy market. The growth of the price of LNG in the centers is driving up the liquefied natural gas and vice versa. The spot prices of LNG in the north of Asia have risen above US$ 20 per million BTU, as buyers of the region are competing for the submissions available. This market term is dominated by the Netherlands.
So the op makes it almost impossible to compete against the prices of Russian gas pipeline. Even more so when Germany has guaranteed the U S$4 per MM BTU, or something like U$S 450 per 1000m3 of CNG. Dominated the market being able to export its surplus to the rest of the European Union as Slovenia to Ukraine and Georgia to prevent the seizure of the Russian Federation to such countries.
The effect was immediate, the gas crisis has caused the crisis of prices in the generation of electricity particularly in Portugal, Spain, Greece, Ireland and Italy, as soon suspended the generation of energy by means of nuclear plants and do not have coal-fired power plants in operation depending only on a gas pipeline between algeria and low volume.
The crisis, which recorded increases of up to 150 euros (us$200) to megawatt per hour from one day to another; and the spaniards more low-income to light a candle in the hours of peak consumption, using electricity only in the early morning hours when the consumption is low and has the price of subsidy.
Despite the fact that Spain has the largest Wind park in Europe, with strong promotion policies and with state subsidies, has not demonstrated efficiencies in their use and/or contribute to the interconnected system, it is more serious flaws in the blades of carbon fiber have been forced to urgent repair if power to recycle the same because they are highly polluting and carcinogenic.
This crisis not only covers the nations of the mediterranean, the United Kingdom begins to suffer from its effects, given that british consumers fear power outages this winter by the lack of provision of gas of Russian origin, together with changes in the logistics naval spread the vessels regasificadores whose businesses have suffered bankruptcy, limitations in operations as a result of the pandemic, and the scrapping of vessels in order to prevent the deficits of the same.
In turn, you can also observe the phenomenon of BREXIT that has disrupted the supply of liquid fuels, for lack of land transport.
Fourth. The results of the renewable energy in particular wind and solar have seen not only a decrease in its production, but also the disappointment in their utility and efficiency.
With 6.056 MW of installed capacity in Spain, both of which assume only 24% of the electricity demand in spain, inefficiency has clearly demonstrated the syndrome of “DON QUIXOTE” of the engineering of that country.
Its short operational life, not only causes noise pollution, but of constant explosions of their turbines, and the inability to recycle their shovels when you break down or deteriorate. That is why you struggle to revitalize these plants, but with ecological and economic consequences not very encouraging.
The EU, expected to 5400 wind turbines must repowering, in Europe, and you must renew the child throughout the park in 2030, the number of blades that are recycled is 3, and the only option for disposal is buried. Landfills are a serious problem not only for industry, but that causes serious problems with their citizens and NGOS ecological.
The life of a wind turbine is not to exceed 20 years compared to the 70 years that provides for a Nuclear reactor cycle CANDU, or PWR or natural cycle. There are further away from the problems that involve the solar fields.
The solar panels are still rather inefficient, only enough to see that the last module ( Russian-made NAUKA translated it would be “Science”) of the international space station, has 13 m3 (14 metres) in size, which is powered by a 56 m2 of solar panels, we must remark that, in the space the panels do not face the dirt, or dust, and that their efficiency is at 100% because they are illuminated permanently by the Sun, without interference, atmospheric conditions of any kind, a simple equation we see that the efficiency to power 1 m3 it is necessary in an optimal environment of 5 m2 solar panels, going to m2the account will be reduced to 4 m2.
The different solar parks, installed, particularly in Germany, Chile, Argentina and China, indicates that none, you can produce a GW journal, and the spaces and land which they occupy, are wasteful, it is for this reason that all of them receive state subsidies for their operation. In addition to the use exorbitant water for cleaning, always rare in the environments put themselves, because they are in desert places.
But where is it more apparent impotence of new technologies for power generation is in China where to invest large sums of money in the development of the same who in the last decade, as a consequence of the failure, has changed its planning and has picked up three strategic actions.
- Keep the generation by power plants fueled by coal, which they buy directly from Australia, and with the interference strategic about this nation, which has recently been altered by the alliance AUKUS.
- To encourage the creation of new nuclear power plants under the technology PWR General Electric, patents and developments that you were directly transferred during the Carter administration, by the agreements of Nixon – Deng in 1974.
- The creation of hydroelectric three Gorges on the Yangtze River., the work cost about $ 75 billion.
In the end, it turned out to be not only a record at their cost or at their harm eco-friendly as much complaint, but in the year 2014 reached 98,8 TWh per year and reduced the CO2 emissions of China in 100 million tons per year. This has set the precedent that China wanted to meet with the Agreement of Paris, and reduce the high costs of pollution without affecting the performance of your production.
The contribution was so significant in its economy, ecology and technology, as well as the impact of labour and social PCRCh has planned four new dams, the Wudongde, the Baihetan, the Xiluodu and Xiangjiaba.
The total capacity of those four dams will be 38 500 MW, almost double the capacity of the Three Gorges. Xiluodu and Xiangjiaba are under construction, while Baihetan is preparing for the construction and Wudongde is missing the approval of the government. Eight most prey are in the midst of the current of the Jinshan and eight more upstream.
In this scenario (2) we conclude that, at the global level, the document in question has revisited the capabilities of both, chinese as a Russian to tackle the power crisis. In the case of europe, it has been an action to completely change the matrix in these 25 years, GAS – GREEN ALTERNATIVES (wind – solar).
The U.S., for its part, has its energy matrix that deserves a follow-up study, it is mixed since the deregulation in the energy area that is almost completely private where they compete mainly, the hydro, the atomic, the GAS with the momentum of the Shale Gas with self-sufficiency, and alternative renewable energy.
Source:https://www.sectorelectricidad.com/23413/conozca-la-matriz-energetica-en-estados-unidos-parte4/
Sources: US Energy Information Adminstration (Eia) U. S. Census Bureau. Available in: https://www.eia.gov ; https://www.census.gov and https://www.census.gov/pro grams-surveys/decennial-census/decade/2020/2020-census-results.html
Even so, despite the progress energy USA observed the dependence of the oil, GAS and supplies atomic on any other productive matrix.
Source: Global Data, Power Intelligence Center. Available in: https://www.globaldata.com/industries-we-cover/power/ Libraries and Reports: https://store.globaldata.com
In the Russian case, the matrix, responds primarily to three factors: 1) GAS (which is omnipresent in all of their activities), 2) the hydro-and finally, 3) the atomic.
On the other hand, China has reverted to a matrix mainly hydroelectric, nuclear and in a secondary form of renewable energy.
Source: EIA https://www.eia.gov
The case of the Argentine Republic
The extension and the geopolitical configuration of the Republic of Argentina to define it as a relevant actor for the production of energy, due to the great diversity of generation sources, natural resources, and its dimension with respect to the global market. Also, it is far from the conflicts that affect the supply of energy security, although it is noteworthy that:
- The supply of energy is not always accompanied the demand, many opportunities have been taken emergency measures and economic situation that requires planning of new generation systems.
- Main threats to which the RA is the lack of investment, the absence sustained a plan to exploit the resources on the basis of a criterion of diversification of the array of power generation
- There is a growing integration with the countries of the region to generation shared energy (See maps below). This situation implies seeing the levels of cooperation and dependence whose axes are: Paraguay Yacyretá, or the linkages between pipelines Argentina-Bolivia-Argentina-Chile; the same in the generation of energy with Brazil and Uruguay. These bilateral relationships have cycles of power generation depending on the climatic conditions, which revolves around the question about how it will produce energy in 2030 compared to the imbalances weather that hit the region such as: the downspout history of the Rio Paraná. In addition, large reserves of Gas (Argentina) and oil (Venezuela) with the challenge of transformation of domestic consumption to production processes.
- At the multilateral level have not prospered energy initiatives of generation inside the Mercosur. In addition to being a region with great natural resources can take advantage of the frameworks of regional integration (Mercosur) to introduce new value chains in the field of strategic minerals and the development of economies of scale, that is to say, large regions of potential development of renewable energies.
Graph: Geographical distribution of the main gas pipelines and interconnections hydroelectric
- The main problem of the region is the absence of an institutional framework (e.g. IIRSA UNASUR sought the establishment of an axis of integration and regional development), constituting projects that tend to the energy cooperation. Unfortunately, the advances were determined case by case, on many occasions, bilateral and always subject to issues related to the infrastructure (generation, transportation, etc). In addition, there are large regulatory frameworks at the national levels by limiting the participation of the countries in transit (that fail to provide investments, compensation, etc) affecting the quality and levels of generation.
- In Argentina, the electrical system is only for illumination, which poses the main challenge to the future diversification of the energy, whereas efforts have been made to generate wind farms (see annex 1) and solar (San Juan), which is still not compensate for the generation of fossil fuels. You can see the projection of incorporation of clean technologies and new forms of generation on the basis of installed capacity (see box below), which are implemented plans for the maintenance and re-engineering of the installed capacity with criteria of efficiency and low emission.
Source: MINEM
In line with this concept, Argentina has the challenge to rethink your array, and take advantage of the technologies developed by the CNEA, not only in atomic as it is the project CAREM 25, the unique modular reactor civilian world for local generation of energy. While there are three models in the world, these are experimental and different to the one proposed by Argentina, in this specific matter, only the US, South Korea and China have theoretical models to practical. In the case of argentina, the CAREM is in the implementation stage, and its completion is estimated by the end of 2024.
Sources: CNEA: https://www.cnea.gob.ar/es/wp-content/uploads/files/cap2_1.pdf
Where Argentina presents a stagnation noun of your electric development is in the field of hydropower. The last great work plant was Yacyretá in 2000 (with arrears and proven corruption in his completion of the work), being stalled the development of the dams in Patagonia Argentina and the mega-project Paraná Medio.
But from the side of the CNEA there are projects highly relevant to low-cost as are the reactors, BIOMASS, with the use of a gas plasma and the controlled burning of organic waste obtained power generation for remote areas or disconnected from the national interconnected electric system.
Source: CNEA. Available in: https://www.cnea.gob.ar/es/wp-content/uploads/files/cap2_1.pdf
How geothermal energy, a possibility?
Argentina possesses potential energy as they have developed ICELAND, RUSSIA and the PHILIPPINES (which by the intermediate of geothermal energy provided the 26,44% of the total electricity to your country and 19,903 GW/hour of electric power for a total demand of 75,266 Gigawatt-hour) by the intermediate of General Electric, geothermal energy.
Argentina has large geothermal fields. The more important the laguna del Chancho – Caviahue in the Province of Neuquén. As well as lower intensity, in the natural hot springs that exist in Santiago del Estero, in the hot Springs of Rivers, Deep, in Mendoza, in the valley of Cacheuta, and in the province of Bs. Ace. at different points of the same.
Geothermal energy requires a scientific – technological development of noun and its results are of higher levels of viability that any wind farm or solar. Many of the wind farms nationals are out of service by the destruction of their turbines because they were not designed for winds in excess of 80 km/h as there are in these latitudes. The geothermal development represents a possibility of association with the USA or RUSSIA for its development, as well as integration with countries as remote as the Philippines and Iceland.
Taking this last country, if we extrapolate your experience geothermal with its three power plants installed in Nesjavellir, Reykjanes, and Hellisheiði, they produce 120 Mw, 100 Mw, and 346 Mwe respectively, that is to say, that all together are producing a total of 546 Mw. In addition, the hot water that occurs in all of Iceland is more than 3,000 litres hours available to the entire island, which mostly goes to the heating achieving two direct effects, the ecology for the ZERO emission of CO2 gas and the economic energy saving in the production of heating, leaving the energy developed only for the production of electricity, and with it, leaving the need for NATURAL GAS to the home network.
What the Phoenix atomic? In this context, all the analysts and even the greens (environmentalists) europeans see the need for the emergence of technologies are atomic, due to the zero CO2 emissions. Here a new feature is that of the modular reactors, and advances in the field of Nuclear Fusion on the basis of large magnets, and tritium (source, no pollution, atomic or nuclear – no waste-).
France is developing the I. T. E. R. which involved more than 40 countries, among them Brazil and Russia, among others, and this project represents the most important advancement of humanity if it came to term, since it would produce energy almost unlimited at very low costs, with the exception of those of the infrastructure primary. This is a strategic decision that the argentine State can not be absent, as well as the developments of the W7-X from Germany or the Tokamak of Russia or China.
A number of important nations such as South Korea, China, India, Eastern Europe and the same US consider rehabilitate reactors of atomic fission as a solution to the medium term to achieve the balance of emissions.
The demographic question
At the end of the 2020 censuses were conducted at the global level, one of the most important of them arises demographic studies of the United State Census Bureau that, in conjunction with other offices dedicated to the field of population studies in Europe and Asia, there are important data (social, political, and econometrics to the outlined scenario in 2030 to 2040, which pose it is clear possibilities of applications, forward-looking clear for the future of the medium and long term.
This census or report is not the only system that exist for the analysis of populations, for example, we have:
- The Statistics in the social development (measurements of GDP)
- New alternatives for measuring well-being (the task of finding new ways of measurement has been assumed by various institutions, including the European Commission -EC-).
- Assessments of the quality of life in the measurement of its economic achievements (method of the Stiglitz Commission – OECD)
- Measurements of levels of happiness (As an alternative to measure the well-being of a society, a large number of agencies have already put in place indicators such as gauges of quality of life, rates of education, ecological footprint, environmental, indicators of the fulfillment of the objectives of the Lisbon Strategy, sustainable development, human development, natural capital, or, simply, about happiness).
- Index of Prosperity Legatum (it is based on the statistical analysis of more than 40 years of data to more than 100 countries around the world, produced and supervised by the Legatum Institute, with input from the research consultancy Oxford Analytica and a panel of advisors respected in the fields of economics, history, development, sociology, and political science).
- Statistics and inequality
- Methods of Offices of Official Censuses (INDEC – US CENSUS BUREAU)
- Methods of collecting private (example www.datosmacros.com).
Of these statistical studies, already in the 50s of the TWENTIETH century raised the curves of the bell for the analysis of the population and its development.
Source: United nations. Population Division, Available at: https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth
In short, the central ideas of these studies, it is predicted that populations around the world will stabilize by 2020 and that there would be developments chords between nations. The reality, with the data, is that overwhelm those possibilities and make useless all the predictions of Malthus. Populations have begun to decline steeply as can be seen in the different graphs.
Source: Our World in Data – Based U. N. Population Division & HYDE Our World in Data; Author: Max Roser. Available in: https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth
Source: Data provided by the U. S. Census Bureau. Available: https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/2011/demo/world-population–1950-2050.html
Source: Our World in Data – Based U. N. Population Division & HYDE. Our World in Data. Available in: https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth
Source: A Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2019). Available in:
Under these projections, the population of the world, you can find a balance in the 9,000 million inhabitants by 2050, at least those are the forecasts of the U. S. Census Bureau.
Source: US Census Bureau. Available in: https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/2011/demo/world-population–1950-2050.html
The world's population will probably reach a maximum of 9.700 million in 2064, and then decrease to a few 8.800 million by the end of the century, as women have better access to education and contraception, according to new studies, based on both the United Nations and the US Census Bureau.
For the year 2100, 183 of 195 countries do not have fertility rates required to maintain the current population, with 2.1 births designed by women, said researchers from the Institute of Evaluation and Metrics of Health of the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Washington. Some 23 countries, including Japan, Thailand, Italy and Spain, will be reducing their populations in more than 50%, the researchers said.
However, the population of sub-saharan Africa could be tripled, which would allow for slightly less than half of the world's population will be african by the end of the century. The modelling study, published in The Lancet, also predicts a dramatic decrease in the populations of working age in countries such as India and China, which will hurt economic growth and may have negative implications for the work force and the social support systems, the researchers said.
But as you decrease the fertility, the researchers point out that immigration could compensate for the decrease of the population, particularly in countries with low fertility, such as the united States, Australia, and Canada. In this context, states should not only be powerful in military development, economics, or levels of happiness, but that his power should be measured also in the composition of the age of its population and its growth, given that the capitalist economic system necessarily need consumers and producers, and in this scenario, the largest producers of goods and services, it would be played and with the aging of its population and the decrease of the same by natural mortality.
That clearly aging will decrease the work force, as well as its quality services and even the maintenance of essential tasks. Asian States and european evidence effectively this trend, although they try to balance it (these negative trends) with the contribution of migration.
Source: A – Population Division (2019). Available in: https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth
However, in particular cases, the most important and alarming studies are Europe, Japan and South Korea.
The case of South Korea
South korea has a population of 51.781.000 people, for what can be considered a country with a significant number of inhabitants. The main features of the structure of the population in South Korea:
- The male population is the 50,06%, slightly higher than the female.
- It is one of the countries with the lowest percentage of children in respect of their total population, the 12,54%.
- South korea has a birth rate is very low, so only 5.9‰, ergo 0,59%
The south koreans, has a half life of 83,23 years, have a life expectancy of very high compared to the rest of the citizens of the world. South korea presents a pyramid down (or bulb), with the base narrower than the central area and the percentage of older people is significant. It is a pyramid typical of developed countries, with birth and death rates low and a natural growth very low. It is, therefore, a society in decline and with a tendency to be the most.
In the year 2021, the distribution of the population of South Korea is:
Population total: 51.305.184 (100%)
Population young: 6.294.211 (12.27%)
Population working-age: 36.511.301 (71.16%)
Population older adults: 8.499.672 (16.57%)
Source: A – Population Division
Sources: A – Population Division and Datosmacro.com
The estimates for 2030 in the following graphical representation:
Source: United Nations.
The working-age population (economically active) will be less than 60% of the total population in the year 2036. The elderly population will be more than twice of the young population in 2028. The total population reaches its peak in 2024 with 51.347.169.
The elderly population will represent the 42.14% of the population of South Korea in 2066, the problem of the aging of the population is severe. A relevant topic in South Korea is suicide.
Suicide in South Korea is a topic that is currently located in the country with the 6th highest rate in the world, according to the WHO, as well as the highest rate of suicide to a member state of the OECD.
One of the reasons for higher rates in comparison with other developed countries, is the large amount of suicide among the elderly.
The prevalence of suicide among elderly south koreans is due to the widespread poverty among senior citizens in South Koreawith almost half of the country and the population of the third age living below the poverty line.
Combined with the poorly funded social safety net, this results in suicides of the elderly not to be a financial burden to their families, as the old social structure where the children took care of their elderly parents has largely disappeared in the TWENTY-first century.
As a result, people living in rural areas tend to have higher rates of suicide.
Without a doubt, suicide is a leading cause of death is very important in the world. We can realize the seriousness of the problem by comparing the number of suicides with the murders. In 2019 there were 309 murders in South Korea, as well as, in South Korea the number of suicides is much higher than the murders, to the point that for every person killed committed suicide 44,7 people. In the graph below we can see the evolution of the number of suicides in recent years.
Source: Datosmacro.com
Coindicen the different indexes and studies that the alarming cases of suicides, which are transversal to all strata of society koreans are four reasons:
- the economic system
- the lack of a social system of retirement benefits in line
- the ageing of the population
- the fierce social competition and high social standards.
These reasons are already reported extensively in the film and television of the country as constant criticism to a capitalist system “FEUDALISTIC” copying the japanese model, but exacerbated by the productive models in china. That is to say, the worst of the two worlds of the far east.
To date, South Korea's only tends to provide as a solution to their problems population with the annexation of Korea in the North, by the collapse of the system stalin and the constant famines. Immigration is low, or no, by which population growth is almost unsustainable. This can be translated into:
- Lack of young labour force by 2030
- Massive increase in mental illness, suicides, and crime rate.
- Empty in the military defense of the territory due to lack of population to maintain the armed forces of the Nation.
- Loss of national identity.
The Korean model of the South is replicated to a lesser or greater scale in almost all the far east.
The japanese case
Japan, with a population of 125.836.021 people, is a populous country and has a high population density, 333 inhabitants per Km2.
Japan is the third largest economy in the world by volume of GDP.
Their public debt in 2019 was 10.802.026 million euros, is the second largest country by volume of debt, with a debt of 235,45% of GDP, and according to this parameter is the country's most indebted in the world. Its per capita debt is 85.601€ euros per inhabitant, its people are the most indebted in the world.
The last annual rate of CPI published in Japan August, 2021, and was 0.4%.
With only a 2.8% unemployment, Japan is the country with the least unemployment rate in the world.
The GDP per capita is a very good indicator of the level of life and, in the case of Japan, in 2020, was of 35.157€ euros, which is located in the 25th position of the 196 countries in the ranking of GDP per capita.
In terms of the Human Development Index, or HDI, which is prepared by the United Nations to measure the progress of a country and that in summary shows us the level of life of its inhabitants, it indicates that the japanese have a good quality of life.
The main features of the structure of the population in Japan:
- The female population is the 51,17% of the total, slightly more than the male.
- It is one of the countries with the lowest percentage of children in respect of their total population, the 12,45%.
- Has a 28.4% of people older than 65 years, and is the country with the highest percentage of over 65 years of age among its population in the world.
- Japan has a birth rate is very low, only 7‰.
The japanese have an average life that revolves around the 84,36 years, have a life expectancy of very high compared to the rest of the citizens of the world.
Despite the fact that it is not a feature of your population pyramid, yes it is important for your analysis to know that Japan is among the countries that offer a better quality of life for older people, according to the global Index of aging.
Japan presents a pyramid down (or bulb), with the base narrower than the central area and the percentage of older people is significant. It is a pyramid typical of developed countries, with birth and death rates low and a natural growth very low. It is, therefore, a society in decline and with a tendency to be the most.
Source. Datosmacro.com
Now, although it may seem like a recurring issue, the phenomenon of suicide in Japan is something more than a statistic, to become something really alarming. Were recorded in 2021, in Japan 20.031 suicides, 434 less than in 2017. This means that every day commit suicide in Japan, an average of 55 people.
In percentage terms, this translates into the fact that in Japan, the suicide rate is 15.8 per 100,000 residents, well above the average of suicides at the global level, which is 9,46 per 100,000 inhabitants. Japan is a country with a high suicide rate, if compared with the other countries of the world.
The 20.031 suicides that occurred in 2018, 13.851 were suicides of men and 6.180 of women. Thus, they commit suicide 22,5 men out of every 100,000 and 9.5 women out of every 100,000 suicide rate of male is more than double that of the female. Although it may seem that it is an important difference, is less than the difference that exists between them in most of the countries.
Without a doubt, suicide is a leading cause of death is very important in the world. We can realize the seriousness of the problem by comparing the number of suicides with the murders. In 2018 there were 334 murders in Japan, as well as in Japan, the number of suicides is much higher than the murders, to the point that for every person killed committed suicide to 60 people.
Source. Datosmacro.com and BBC, Available at: https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-56112465
Factors in suicide include unemployment (due to the economic recession in the 1990s), depression, and social pressures. There was a rapid increase in suicides since the 1990s. For example, in 1998, an increase of 34.7 % compared with the previous year. But the crisis of the pandemic by Covid 19 has done to grow the suicides of women and children during the 2020 and 2021.
Unemployment, isolation, urban, domestic freight: the COVID-19 has raised the pressure for women and generated alarm in a country that has struggled to reduce one of the highest suicide rates in the world. Although the pandemic has been difficult for many in Japan, the pressures have worsened for women. As in many other countries, the number of women who have lost their jobs is greater. In Tokyo, the largest metropolis of the country, about one out of every five women living alone, and those called to stay at home and avoid visiting the family have exacerbated the feelings of isolation. Other women have struggled against the deep disparities in the distribution of household work and parenting during the era of working from home, or have suffered an increase in domestic violence and sexual assault.
The growing burden of psychological and physical of the pandemic, has led to an increased concern of suicides among women. In Japan, 6976 women took their own lives last year, nearly 15 percent more than in 2019. This is the first increase in a year-over-year in over a decade.
Among women younger than 40 years, suicides rose to around 25 per cent, and among adolescents, the amount of girls from high school that he took his own life was doubled in the past year. But even more disturbing are the events of suicide on children, let's remember that Japan has one of the birth rates, the world's smallest, with less than 0.4%.
Suicides among school japanese reached a record high during the last school year, according to a report by the Ministry of Education in 2021. Japan recorded 415 suicides among school children aged 6 to 18 years during the school year 2020, the highest number since records began in 1974. The figure was 31% higher than the previous school year, when they died 317 school. “The increase in suicides is extremely alarming,” he told NHK Eguchi Arichika, director of the division of child affairs and student of the Ministry of Education of Japan.
The Ministry of Education of Japan conducts an annual survey of schools at all levels and collects data on suicides, bullying and truancy. The report of the October 14, 2021 also found that more than 190,000 students from primary and secondary schools were out of class for 30 days or more in the last school year, said NHK. That's a record high, and approximately 8% over the previous year. “The results show that the pandemic has brought about changes in the school environment, and family and has had an impact on the behavior of children.”
In contrast with South Korea, and seeing the different indexes and studies that the alarming cases of suicides, which are transversal to all strata of society japanese are seven reasons:
- the social system, feudal and competitive. individualistic.
- the economic system.
- the lack of a social system of retirement benefits in line
- the ageing of the population
- the fierce social competition and high social standards.}
- the tradition accepted by the ceremony suicide as part of the japanese culture.
- racism, xenophobic, and misogynist.
These reasons are already reported widely in the literature, the press, the cinema and television of that country as constant criticism to a capitalist system “FEUDALISTIC – XENOFOBO – MACHO”, and this is exacerbated by its own model of cultural history.
To date, Japan only tends to provide as a solution to their problems of population with a warm immigration fueled by filipinos, vietnamese, cambodians, malaysians, indonesians, and in a tiny part of Latin americans to immigrate thanks to the plan for seasonal work for up to six months, extendable to two years (which assumes almost a system of work slavery by the lack of job protection for workers in the Latin american foreign soil japanese).
Even so, immigration is low, or no, by which population growth is unsustainable. This can be translated into:
- Lack of young labour force by 2030
- Massive increase in mental illness, suicides, and crime rate.
- Empty in the military defense of the territory due to lack of population to maintain the armed forces of the Nation.
- Loss of national identity.
The japanese model, due to cultural issues, is the central model that is being replicated to a lesser or greater scale in almost all of the far east.
The european continent in particular the EU
In 2021, the total population of the EU was approximately 446 million people. In addition to being ranked third in population at the global level in the EU, life expectancy is one of the highest in the world (80.3 years of life), and enjoys a high Human Development Index. However, in 2020, the EU lost more than 10 % of its population as a result of the exit of the Uk from the Union. Showing levels of population growth is relatively slow, with a mean age relatively high compared with other continents.
In this context, the population of the EU is undergoing a process of unequal between regions. On the one hand, countries such as Germany, where for several years the population ages progressively, due to the decrease in the number of births and the steady increase in life expectancy. On the other, countries such as France which have managed to maintain a birth rate sufficient.
The high life expectancy and low infant mortality rate in the EU show that the low mortality rate is due to the advances in the areas of economy, health, and education.
In terms of the demographic future of the EU, its number of inhabitants will need to increase substantially in the next decade, in part due to immigration, but above all thanks to the enlargement process, which could accommodate the accession of Turkey and several states of the former Yugoslavia, with which the total population of the EU will increase by more than 100 million inhabitants.
The European Union occupies the 3rd place in the global ranking of population, with a total of 501.105.661 people are estimated to live in the EU in 201.112 in front of the 313.232.044 in the united States. That is to say, the European Union has approximately 188 million inhabitants, more than the united States (in 2020, the EU lost an estimated 67 million inhabitants to leave the United Kingdom the Union).
According to a report from Eurostat, the population of the EU-27 will increase from 501 million inhabitants in January 2010 to 525 million in 2035, up to 526 million in 2040. Then you will go down to the 517 million in 2060. So, in 2060, the most populous member States would be France (74 million), Germany (66 million), Italian (65 million) and Spain (52 million).
Also according to the report, the population of the EU-27 will continue to age, and the proportion of population over 65 years will rise from 17% in 2010 to 30% in 2060, while those older than 80 years will go from 5% to 12% during that period.
As comparative characteristics we can say that the population of europe is where it is most evidence of its aging population. That is to say, there are more elderly population that young. Happens for these two reasons:
- The low birth rate: In Europe born a few children for years. Only about ten children out of every 1000 people. For example, in Africa are born 40 children per 1000 people. The increase of age and can live a person: in Europe have the possibility of living many years that is why there are many elderly people at birth, a european has the hope to live in 74 to 82 years old.
- The growth of the population: it is slow to some countries have negative natural growth is the number of birth is less than the number of deaths, But Europe, as well as the US still own the regulation of population migration. In the TWENTIETH century, many europeans immigrated to America, at present the opposite happens, now, leaving many people from other continents, South America to Europe, as well as of the countries of the Maghreb and Sahel. This is helping Europe's population to grow. The immigration produces two other effects:
- Growth of the active population: the majority of the immigrants that are coming, can work, with the result that the number of unemployed persons decreased.
- Growth of the birth rate: the immigrants are young and have children. This increases the number of births in Europe.
Suicide rates are high, but varied across the European Union. The incidences social frame clearly these differences of percentages within the Union. Where the countries of eastern Europe (former Russian satellites) and scandinavian topped the rankings, and the mediterranean are those with the lowest rates. It is the opposite case in the rates of criminals.
Source Datosmacro.com
Suicide is not a minor issue, however, the abortion and the lack of births if they are, and this combined with illegal immigration for humanitarian disasters in Africa (Libya, the Sahel, etc), Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and China, given cultural and social change is unexpected for the whole Union, which will lose its national identity, religious and social.
A clear example, is the advance of islam, not only in the european religion but in addition to the advancement of ethnic within the Union with regard to a European muslim. It is clear that compared with the 1.6 % of average birth-rate of the Union, the fertility rate of immigrants exceeds 3.2%. What gives us an alarming change in the social composition and economic of the whole Union, being the cases of France, Spain and Germany the most transculturizados for families-islamic.
As a result, the identity and the composition of its armed forces, as well as of his political forces are threatened by a militant islam, anti-european and anti-christian, which threatens the security of the continent. In line with this are Japan and Korea, the ageing of its population is the central theme and that can make you lose your leadership growth and human and technological, threatened by a system of social solidarity that in the absence of contributors active threat, as in 2008, the economic collapse of the entire Union. The prospects for the continent, can be defined as a concern and “old” problems without solutions.
The united states of america
The population of the united States was 331.449.281 inhabitants (official census of 2020 – US CENSUS BUREAU). This figure includes an estimated 11.2 million undocumented immigrants, but exclude the population of five unincorporated territories (Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands of the united States, Guam, american Samoa, and Northern Mariana Islands).
It is a country that is very urbanized, with 81% of the population living in suburbs and cities to date in 2014, while the rate of global urbanization is 54 %. California and Texas are the most populous states, while the population center middle of the united States has been moving toward the southwest. New York is the most populous city in the united States.
The population of the united States is relatively homogeneous; approximately 75 % is caucasian, of european origin, mostly british, German, irish, and to a lesser extent Italian, is without counting the hispanic and Latin american whites, even though some of these europeans are mixed together. Typically, you use the name WASP (White Anglo-Saxon Protestant) to refer to the “majority” of the people of the united States (although in a strict sense, is excluded to irish and Italian).
The black population represents 13 % of the population. Most of it comes from former african slaves brought in the era of slavery. In addition, there are ethnic minorities, which in terms of numbers are very high if compared with your countries national. Among them may be mentioned the minority of the jews that are more than 5 million people living in the united States has nearly the same population as the State of Israel, like that 30 million people of mexican origin living in the united States, which equates to more than 25% of the population of Mexico.
Its population is urban in 90 %; settles on everything in the great centers of industrial and commercial center, and, above all, on the coast. The U.s. population is aging; in 2010, there were 24 million people over the age of 50 years, the implications are significant because, being 32% of the total population, they have the 51 % of the country's wealth. This age group spends more money on health insurance, medications, remodeling of the home and international tourism.
It was estimated in 2012 that 90 million people with more than 28 years are singles who decided to live alone. From 2000, the number of single-person households is greater than that of married couples with children.
The 85 % of americans over 25 years, he has completed secondary education, and 68 % are enrolled in universities. A pyramid of the population shows the age of the population by sex from 1950 to 2020:
Men: | 151.205.402 |
Women: | 156.006.721 |
0-14 years: | By 20.2 % (male 31 639 127 / women 30 305 704) |
15-64 years: | 67 % (men 102 665 043 / women 103 129 321) |
65 years and over: | 12,8 % (men 16 901 232 / women 22 571 696) |
In this particular case, repeat the stages in europe, for both demographic rates, suicides, crime and development. As an exception to the rule, even if the suicides are nouns, they are overcome by the alarming rate of abortions in the union that is a controversial topic but that severely affects growth rates.
But is offset because the USA is the great vacuum of immigrants in the world, not only of workers primarizados or victims of humanitarian disasters, but is also the first destination of professionals and scientists are highly skilled in the world because it is clear by its status as a leading world economic power.
Still, this is a substantial change in the social composition american, as a detail, we can note that only the marine corps of the US NAVY has more soldiers of origin latinos (mexicans and/or the descendants of the soldiers of origin or white race african american. And this is only a sample of the complex acculturation american.
The case of argentina
The population of the Republic of Argentina (according to the projections of the INDEC) at the 2019 amounts to 44.938.712 inhabitants.
Argentina is a country with a low population density, heavily concentrated in the aglomerado Gran Buenos Aires (38,9%), mostly urban, with 92% to 2011 and with a large proportion of people older than 60 years (14,3%). Has high rates of life expectancy (77 years), and literacy (98,1%). Argentina is the fourth most populous country in Latin America, after Brazil, Mexico and Colombia. The Argentine Republic has been posting a birth rate stable in recent years across its territory.
By 2011, 92% of argentina's population lived in cities, becoming one of the most urbanized countries in the world. In contrast, 40% of rural people are at risk of extinction. Argentina recorded indices of the socio-labor diversified that they align with the position and territorial distribution. The infant mortality rate is 9.6‰ (low).
In terms of the demographic evolution of argentina registered a growth rate upward until the year 1914, mainly due to the high rate of immigration, a moderate growth between 1914 and 1947, and a rate of growth, even more slight from 1960 until 2001. This is explained by the process of demographic transition. In 2010, displayed an increase in mild in the pace of growth compared to the previous census (up 10.1 per thousand) with an average annual growth rate of 11.4 per thousand.
Source: INDEC CENSUS 2010
The total fertility rate on the basis of data from the 2010 Census and the Ministry of Health was reduced to 2,24 children per woman, with respect to the 2,64 recorded in the 2001 Census.
Towards 2021, with the advancement of the laws of sexual reproduction and I. V. E. was reduced again to 2,04 and 1,99 (variable due to the lack of census 2020 INDEC) children per woman, a figure which is alarming and should be a priority of study. In various jurisdictions across the country, this rate is below the rate of replacement of 2.1 with respect to 2001.
The Autonomous City of Buenos Aires is the one that holds the index lower with 1.85 children per woman and the Province of Santa Cruz the most high with 3,14. These two jurisdictions were the only ones in which there was a rise of the total fertility rate in the period 2001-2010.
On the issue of suicides, Argentina is in the fourth position of the subcontinent, not being a central theme or alarm. Not so in the crime rates of killings both by facts and malicious as unintentional (accidents, traffic etc) that recorded increases year-on-year considerable.
With regard to immigration, while there is the great receiver of the TWENTIETH century, in what starts this century, Argentina continues to receptando many immigrants from neighbouring countries, particularly paraguayan, bolivian, chilean and venezuelan, on a smaller scale chinese continental and african countries.
This has led in part to the dynamism of the economy and of jobs in the primary, particularly dominated by bolivian, paraguayan and venezuelan. But at the same time, this wave of immigration, particularly pressure, in particular the wave of immigration, peruvian, on crime and narco-terrorism.
Argentina can in the next few years, if you develop your economy and get rid of their problems, political, social, receptar or receive large numbers of eastern europeans, since the energy crisis that is coming to the European Union will hit very hard in the industries, and particularly the cost of housing, and jobs.
Repeating the models of Alberdi, the mere promise of decent housing is cheap and can be substantial appeal, as well as education at all levels free, a valid reason to receive new european immigrants that can be a great contribution during this century, and moderate in this way the immigration primary, which absorbs and evil does our system of health and education.
For its part, Argentina, you should consider the model american, Spanish, and French, for the reception of foreign citizens from neighbouring countries, studying the possibility of a compulsory military service for foreigners within a recruitment system type foreign legion or US. Marine Corps.
Final considerations
Although we have omitted the study of INDIA and CHINA, which should be analyzed in a separate chapter, as the demographic pressure world of the TWENTY-first century will be located in those two nations need a greater contrast than this simple a prospective study.
The world, since the 1960s, has focused on the called the population explosion”, as has been argued Dr. Christopher Murray.
Suddenly, we are now seeing this kind of turning point in the it is very clear that we are rapidly moving from the problem of having too many people to have very few. A problem that also is evidence, for example in China where it is still permitted the third son, no partner has more than one child, giving rates ,096% of birth.
In this scenario, the likely scenario and true is the No. 2 the study of global trends 2030/2040, where they will have a special dynamic in what happens in Africa and in the region of Indo-Pacific.
The demographic pressure has meant a direct impact on the environment, where the rich nations in search of energy security have a growing demand for rare minerals, but in addition it has caused, for example, the crisis of the sand, and although it sounds ridiculous, with it, the international mafia of the Sand to be managed by the mafia of the arena hindi. As almost a short story by Gabriel García Márquez, the wonderful thing becomes real, because the shortage of sand for the construction, for example due to the pressure building up in the arab countries of the United States or Saudi Arabia, or China itself (crisis Evergrande Inc.) modify the environment with the destruction of the coasts as well as in Africa, in Ivory Coast or on the Islands of Cape Verde where I directly do not own arenas of any kind due to the preda.
Even more serious are the environmental damage in twenty islands of Indonesia, which, due to the smuggling and theft of arenas, the country today to demand to Singapore, the main purchaser and regulator of the price of the sand on a global level, the loss of sovereignty and territory in the Pacific, which may lead to even in a war on a regional scale.
The loss of sand suitable for construction, ergo, are the same that we found on beaches, because of the deserts are useless, they are also the main cause of the crisis of the chips and transistors, because in these arenas is the silicon oxide (Source of medicines and matter first to the whitening of other materials), the silicon base of almost all the electronics industry.
This demographic pressure, makes no more apparent excess of energy waste that has been caused, in part, not only the ecological damage by CO2 emissions, but also of the destruction of the seabed and beaches where they live mollusks, bivalves and other marine species.
The demographic pressure and its poor location, with the addition of consumerism capitalist has infected our oceans not only of oil spills, but also dangerous islands of plastic comparable in size to Belgium in the central Pacific and in the South Atlantic compared to Africa.
Moderate not only the temperature or CO2 emissions are important in the trends 2030/2040, but Argentina will open up possibilities both in industrial, military and technological.
To envisage a fleet of recycling plastics, which is not only to safeguard the Ocean, it would also be a Source of industrial development, maritime, as well as a Source of naval intelligence with the application of soft power green argentino. There are in INTI – CONICET and UTN project in execution of recycled plastic pellets and filaments for 3D printing with diffusers, which have excellent results, being able to recreate a pattern similar to the american armed forces, Universities, and Private sector to collaborate and develop in industries disruptive not thought of at the global level as it could be the collection of plastic and recycled the same. Let us remember also that Argentina has developed the ecological brick EASY BRICK through UBA UTN and a private, whose raw material is recycled plastic. With the massive use of such a system could be resolved by the construction of millions of homes with a system of finished exceptional and the speed of the unusual, being able to re-locate to millions of argentines of their precarious living conditions in homes for sustainable, clean and recyclable.
The drawbacks of social and economic, the political will can be quickly resolved, because there are lines of funding from both the World Bank and the UN in the field of ecology, recycling and urban housing for the eradication of slums and narco-crime.
SECOND PART
Impact of competition RPC-USA in the scenario Southwest Atlantic and Antarctic oceans, and the possible design of the maritime strategy, argentina
The competition between the RPCH and the united states and the growing demand for resources of the sea have generated tensions within the institutional framework of international and in the interactions between States reconsidering the importance of the maritime domain. Thus, the Indian ocean and the Pacific have come to be conceived of as spaces geopolitical essential where the practices unilateral of States and private actors coexist with an increased demand for collective solutions to common problems. This has mobilized the path of political motivated preferences state and private efforts to the defense of maritime interests, to face the challenges at the international level and to facilitate a more efficient management at household level.
In this context, it is interesting to understand those schemes of international governance of the sea, where today the site of power for the great powers, to delineate the possible involvement of the stage-domestic South Atlantic and antarctic. As a later step, reveal the need to articulate a national maritime strategy to meet the challenges of the international scenario that we know complex, disruptive and uncertain and are likely to put at risk the validity of international regimes. In our particular case, the Regime of UNCLOS.
Finally, in a subsequent document, propose the path of public policies supporting the need to structure an institutional architecture home more centralized and with greater articulation in the decision-making process inter-bureaucratic, today marked by a large scatter. A path of domestic policy which must necessarily be coordinated with the constraints of both the international arena, as well as the regional levels.
In this, to understand the peculiarities of the argentine society characterized by public and private actors with preferences sectoral disparate and often contrary to the national interest; the permeability of the government institutions to the demands of these actors; the traditions of thought and action, affected ideologically that are resistant to the changes; the weight of the state bureaucracy, where bloom multiple levels of government decision and autonomies and local, the technical complexity of the issues maritime and ocean.
The relevance of the maritime spaces
- It is the basis of the global economy: the 90% of world trade is maritime, Consisting of a system of industries that employ millions of people and generate 24 trillion dollars to the global economy each year, without regard to the exploitation of hydrocarbons.
- Is the space by which it comes to energy: 70% of oil and gas in the world is or is transported through the sea.
- It is a source of food: produces more than 170 million tonnes of fish and shellfish annually, one of the food products most sold in the world; nearly 90% is intended for direct human consumption.
- It is the base material of the telecommunications and our digital life: the cables are responsible for carrying information is found in the bed of the oceans (this explains the importance of the Dolphin).
- It is where the effects of the climate crisis are observed with greater sharpness and diffuse: the disappearance of whole marine ecosystems, the rise of sea levels, the melting of areas that used to be impassable, the contamination of drinking water.
- Is the area par excellence where the states project power outside of its borders: today is the epicenter of the dispute military between the united States and China.
- Connects all life on the planet and it regulates, uniting people and nations. Your health is essential to the well-being of the societies and ecosystems. The ocean produces more than half the oxygen that we breathe and more than a third of the world's population living along its shores. It also gives shape to the climate of the Earth and absorbs over 90% of the excess heat trapped in the atmosphere by human emissions of greenhouse gases.
The vastness of business opportunities explains the intensification increased use of the seas and the oceans through various commercial activities to take advantage of their resources, which impairs their health and threatening their sustainability. This is an activity that is very hard to see in Argentina from the point of view of their potential impact of production and innovation activities related to ocean resources, which more recently have started to be referred to as the blue economy, the key to the future of a green planet.
To address the protection and management of the ocean under sustainability criteria in the achievement of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGS) for the year 2030 resignificará understand the pressure points that are affecting the health of the ocean, and enables you to think a focus planetarium that mitigates the major ecological changes in the future. This implies that if no urgent steps are taken both at local and global levels to address the main threats, we are condemning future generations to have to deal with an ocean very different from the current, characterized by the degradation, depletion of resources, or pollution.
In this we understand that the scientific and technological advances and the demographics are the core factors in the reconfiguration of the logic multipolar international relations and, therefore, makes it necessary to rethink the command of the seas. International analysts have been demonstrated in these early decades of the TWENTY-first century as these advances have generated a mutation geopolitics in constant evolution subject to a bombardment of information giving rise to the cibergeopolítica: a space in which, regardless of the boundaries territorial physical, the network serves as a link between generations around the world.
In our particular case, the proposal is to dare to think of the difficulties that Argentina cannot diversify its productive matrix towards knowledge-intensive activities. The association with changes in technology, market, regulatory and the organization of production on a global level the sectors based on natural resources have also begun to open up opportunities unthinkable decades ago to innovate and diversify the productive matrix into new markets of high added value (Andersen et al 2015, Marin et al 2015, Crespi et al 2018, Network South 2014).
Other dimensions that make it to the importance of the oceans.
In the scenario maritime express and manifest tension that can be observed at regional and global level as a result of the interaction of all its dimensions: political-diplomatic, economic-financial, strategic, military, environmental, and scientific-technological.
The State remains the main source of authority, and the only one with coercive power legitimately recognized, even when the exercise of domestic and international that power may be in question by the regulatory procedures provided by the international institutions and formal.
However, we must recognize the primacy of the US is starting to be discussed by other actors with significant capabilities and that dispute is manifested in maritime spaces that are in your area of geopolitical interest. For this reason, all the actions performed by the RPCH are interpreted as disruptive and revisionists from the USA, given that alters the relative distribution of capabilities, by modifying the material basis of the existing hegemony. A fact that in and of itself, irrespective of any intention, policy or specific action of the RPCH, it is a challenge to the status quo.
The comparison of attributes of military or naval power in a classical sense (fleet, bases and merchant marine) is insufficient to generate the maritime domain necessary, because of the multidimensional nature of the issues ocean, by which the superiority in military capabilities do not necessarily correspond with a greater degree of safety for anyone who owns, or is a guarantee of favorable outcomes to the most powerful actor.
An aspect that allows one to understand how it is reshaping the scenario maritime world is the role that he plays US through its naval strategy and its policies toward the sea, where it is aware of the exercise of the maritime domain as “the ability to freely surf on, above and below the oceans of the world to protect the security interests of the US”. To do this, has modified its former operational concept for the Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps, incorporating a fourth component, the Cyber defense for face:
- Changes in the global balance of power at the expense of the primacy of american;
- Shift in focus in the geographical dimension from the land to the sea;
- The recognition of the modification of some regional scenarios from the development of important capabilities aero-naval, comparable, in terms of technology and range, with the U.S. by rising powers.
The new operational concept identifies two areas of special interest and concern to US, the Persian Gulf and the Western Pacific, and a potential adversary in the same, the RPCH. Their goal is to maintain in the time the advantages of its military supremacy, regardless of the regulatory restrictions that stem from the legal architecture overall.
As well as the Cold War had as protagonists the great armies land in Europe and the nuclear missiles of intercontinental range, today the arms race is concentrated in the dispute for control of the oceans, where the challenge for excellence for the united states, is the rise of the RPCH
China still does not have the capacity of global projection but in the Indo-Pacific region, and more specifically in the South China Sea, an area where it holds ancient conflicts over territorial claims with Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei, Taiwan and Malaysia, and that has led to the implementation of an ocean policy where has prioritized the construction of artificial islands for many years in order to expand the domain of those waters.
However, its economic growth, its commercial expansion in almost all of the orb and its financial capacity have been advances of a renewal of its military capacity, which is already considerable. The pressure that is being submitted by the united States and its allies in the seas of China is not surprising. A matter that had already been considered from time to time by Mearsheimer and known as off-shore balancingthinking about everything in the Asia-Pacific region, to prevent China from becoming a hegemon in the region and, from that position, aspire to the hegemony of the world.
The theory of the balance of threats, Stephen Walt contributes to understand what is happening. On the one hand, this increase in chinese is translated in fear of their immediate neighbors, which has led to the decision by the united states through the agreement AUSKUS and to a lesser extent, the strengthening of the japanese navy in two LPHs so that they can operate with the F-35B and the expected role of India, who has the historical clashes with China, augmented by the alliance between Beijing and Islamabad, but it is expected that greater caution than the previous ones, due to their traditional policy of neutrality.
For its part, China is the naval power that has grown in the last decade, though it is still at the beginning of its ability of global projection. A measure of this project is the importance that have the ports on the infrastructure investments around the world. Today it has a capacity concentrated in their primary area of interest. In other words, the RPCH plays home and an important part of the shaft of the conflict is the domain of the waters that surround it, for this is the importance given to the development and construction of aircraft carriers and submarines, as well as the creation of the marine corps occurred 15 years ago, similar to the american model
These rearrangements of power structures are due to a double logic that we assume leads inevitably to ask ourselves, will dobandwagoning pro chinese or balancing against China? where in addition to the role of the great powers of the region, carved very strong decisions of countries such as Vietnam, the Philippines, Singapore or Thailand for the control of the strait of Malacca.
In this puzzle, we can not ignore the problems and historical relationship of China with Russia where we assume there is a convergence of interests; the pipelines siberian operate at full performance to the delight of both parties and disenchantment of the united states and its allies. Russia is an actor who has been repositioned on the board geopolitical european thanks to the construction of the Nord Stream, which as we set out to regulate the life of the old EU, not only the production, but the well-being of its citizens.
Nor can we ignore the internal problems of China that also made the strategic positioning of the same: claims in Xinjiang and Tibet; in Hong Kong and Inner Mongolia; the deadlock on the issue of Taiwan; the profound differences in economic and mentality existing between the coast and enriching the interior depleted, as well as the increasing pressure supported by a regime that has been opened to the market, but not to the liberal democracy... when 500 million chinese already living standards of middle class.
China has hegemonic aspirations, the problem that presents itself is its dependence on the import of raw materials and energy sources, and it weighs as much of its industrial development as that of their military capacity that sets the stage for the balancing anti-chinese, contributing to the strategy of Washington. This strategic dilemma facing, fed by internal and external factors; resources and political, are a burden that Beijing must be resolved immediately, if it aspires to take the leap hegemonic.
We have already stated that the U.S. presence in the Western Pacific guarantee the validity of the status quo current carrying the weight of the context of security and the regional balance. Within this context, the US promotes the creation of the alliance anglo AUSKUS, born to limit the influence of the military and the projection of power of China in the indo-pacific region, and that includes the development of submarine nuclear propulsion for Australia. A circumstance whose focus of attention is the dispute in the Sea of southern China, and The Economist characterized her as “the manoeuvre of the most dramatic and decisive of the united States up to now, to counteract what it sees as a growing threat from China in the Indo-Pacific region”. This is the first time that the north american country share nuclear technology with an ally that is not the United Kingdom. A fact that has occurrence weeks after the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, the consolidation of the pivots of the military to Asia.
The way in which the united States decides to confront or not to China, where they will be, what will be its global strategy. The alliance AUSKUS and the future inclusion of India in the front of contention with other regional allies will reveal the main keys of the north american strategy current.
Although the center of the conflict between the united States and China is the Indo-Pacific region, there are other issues related to the mastery of the seas, not the least of which require your attention and that is related to climate change and the effects on the same. The most sensational case is that of the Arctic, for the powers is revealed as an opportunity due to the opening of ocean routes as a result of the melting of large ice blocks.
Since a few years ago the ships crossing the Arctic to go from Europe to Asia in any season, and without the need to use icebreakers. The route is fastest –and therefore cheaper– than other options such as the Suez Canal and the interest to transitarla going to grow as the melting building
The geostrategic importance of the space which shares a border with Canada, the united States (Alaska), Russia, Denmark (Greenland), Iceland, the region of Lapland, Sweden, Norway, Finland, and the Svalbard islands, as well as the Arctic ocean, in addition to availability of natural resources (it is estimated that hosts 13% oil, 30% of gas is not discovered, and mineral deposits), revalues a scenario that, if by the time the lines of navigation are bounded, it is logical to expect a dispute in future scenarios.
According to scholars, the case of the Arctic is a potential zone of break, that is to say, an area where what happens there is going to have impact in terms of distribution of power at the global level. As they bloom more trade routes in the area, it is possible that channels like the Suez or Gibraltar to lose weight.
In this era of the thaw, led by the climate change, the Antarctic and the access to the same through the steps bioceanic that link the Pacific and the Southwest Atlantic, it is relevant due to their opportunities of positioning geo-strategically, the freedom of the seas, the access to natural resources and to the future management of tourism. The geopolitical importance of the scenario and which will be the subject of conflict in the future looming over the dispute over the continental shelf and the waters concerned, as evidenced by the recent diplomatic conflict between Chile and Argentina by the territorial limits.
We assume that this question is a very important topic for Argentina is precisely by the conformation of AUSKUS considering particularly that most of the claimants of sovereignty over the antarctic territory are members of the COMMONWEALTH to which is added the claim both in the UK, and Chile for the Antarctic peninsula.
Size historically the existence of a power consolidated in the scenario AS broadly and thanks to the prolific actions of the british, has remained unchanged from Trafalgar to the date. Simply draw an imaginary line from the possessions of the british in the South Atlantic to understand the above – Gibraltar, Ascension, St. Helena, Gough, Tristao da Cunha, Falkland, Georgias and the South Sandwich -a whole concatenation of spaces managed by the british and whose layout allows us to glimpse which is the ultimate goal of the same, the claimed British Antarctic Territory.
Source- Bulletin of METROCOSM. June 2016
The British Crown, represented by Queen Elizabeth II, is the head of the empire; it is the holder of the Anglican Church and sovereign of the Commonwealth – 53 countries that together represent approximately one-third of the world's population, 14 overseas Territories that recognize the queen as their monarch and head of State and three islands that have jurisdiction independent.
This organization is a significant amount of votes (16) in the General Assembly of the United Nations. It is worth remembering that the United Kingdom is one of the five members of the permanent Security Council of the said agency; it is the sixth largest economy in the world; that it is a nuclear power; that joined since 1951, the European Union and it is the historic ally and supporter of the US in NATO, especially from the “UKUSA Agreement of 1946. To do this recently joined the Alliance AUKUS, cited above. Well, that thanks to its overseas territories, its surrounding waters represent the fifth's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in the world, which has been the key player and has had continuity in the successive industrial revolutions and technological, that has the control spaces of strategic projection on the ACE, (lines of communication and maritime steps from the ocean), which maintains a structure of domination in which the Royal Navy is a privileged instrument for the consolidation of national power, and that in addition, it is a pioneer in the creation of Ngos on issues related to the defense of the environment of the oceans, and in particular in the Antarctic.
What the impact on the stage South Atlantic and the Antarctic?
Argentina is undoubtedly a nation's inland waterway, sea and Antarctica, both for its geographical configuration, such as by history and by its presence. However, we inhabit a country whose society has been bred back to the sea, even the great migration allende of the sea that we have made as a Nation. This lack of awareness and maritime identity has prevented us from sizing the importance of the sea and thus deepen systemic way and interdisciplinary resources, and design from the integral development of the Nation.
Figure plasma that reality that is indisputable, geographically eccentric to the major consumption centers of the world, Argentina is an island in the confines of South america. Just look at it from the zenith to South america, to understand the immensity of the ocean that understands it and can imagine the multiplicity of riches and possibilities of development that it contains
From a glance geopolitics, a country that has a coastline of more than 5000 Km of extension, in the lead 4400 Km of rivers, among others, make up the Paraguay – Paraná Waterway of international use, and which represents the main artery through which exports 80 % of the national production and 95% of imports to the country; that the constitution claims to sovereignty by 10.5 million Km2 of which 6,752 million Km2 the waters are; that is the gateway to the only continent not exploited the land, Antarctica; sharing a stage with nations that want to make intensive use of the same and that is present object of geopolitical disputes among the great powers, and that, moreover, it is the only american country that has a conflict of sovereignty with an actor's extra-continental, whose presence alone determines its territorial integrity, it is understood that the problem maritime should be a major concern in the national policy agendas.
Source: Office of the prosecutor in Criminal and Federal Correctional Nro.1. The problem of National Defense. Preliminary Investigation 1/2017
Facts that give relevance to the scenario Atlantic South – Southwest.
- Argentina has presented in 2009 at the UN to the outer limit of the Continental Shelf of argentina, which today is part of the domestic legislation. Chile just do it recently and there is an overlap of areas South of cape Horn, where Chile moves on the Atlantic.
- Towards the end of 2020 was enacted the Law 27.557 by joining the 23.968 of Maritime Spaces Argentine demarcation of the outer limit of the PCA beyond 200 miles, the result of the continuous work that was carried out during more than two decades by the Commission of the Outer Limit of the Continental Shelf (SONG).
- Since mid-July 2021, Argentina, along with Brazil and Uruguay have sought to reinvigorate the Zone of Peace and Cooperation of the South Atlantic (ZOPACAS).
- The construction of a new port in the Falkland Islands by the United Kingdom.
- In January of this year, the Coast Guard of the united States, with the support of the Southern Command, conducted the Operation to the Southern Cross led the fight against illegal fishing in the South Atlantic, where Argentina refused the visit of the coast Guard “STONE” to argentina's ports.
- The creation of an AMP more than a million Km2 circling to South georgia.
- The construction of submarines with nuclear propulsion for Brazil.
- The possible construction of a port with capitals chinese in Punta Sayago in Uruguay with the capacity to supply power to all its fishing fleet that operates in the ACE.
- The award of 18 areas for the exploration of three basins of the continental shelf of argentina in search of gas and oil. The Southern (14.200 km2 with a depth of up to 100 meters), the Malvinas West (86.400 km2, of 100 to 600 meters depth) and Argentina North (100.200 km2 of 200 to 1300 meters and 1200 to 4000 meters in ultra-deep water) and that represent nearly 225,000 km2 of surface water.
- The manifest interest argentine, regardless of the government of the day, to continue creating /expanding marine protected areas in territorial waters of argentina.
- The international pressure on China to accept the creation of new marine protected areas in the vicinity of the antarctic continent.
- MINDEF has created the OPERATIONAL COMMAND of JOINT MARITIME (COCM), within the orbit of the JOINT staff OF THE ARMED FORCES and the OPERATIONAL COMMAND.
Variables
Climate Change
The ocean absorbs about 30% of the CO2 produced by humans, buffering the impacts of global warming. This circumstance is changing the chemistry of the ocean, decreasing its ability to absorb CO2, making it more acidic and damaging to the living beings that inhabit its waters. The acidity of the ocean has increased by 30% since the start of the industrial revolution. The increase of the temperature of the sea, blooms of algae and extreme weather events are also affecting the health of aquatic organisms and the resilience of aquaculture operations. Climate change and the changes being made to the ecosystem are also causing fish populations to decline and shift.
Climate change is generating both the ice to melt, which motivates the progressive increase in the level of the seas, such as the occurrence of major droughts in this part of the south american continent (warming of the Pacific waters that generates the currents of the Child). Both effects are issues that are affecting the life of the coastal populations, the destruction of areas of crop production, the provision of electric energy and drinking water, as well as the export and import of inputs required for the production of argentina and the rest of the countries that use the PPH.
This fact leads to thinking, among other aspects, the administration and management of the Paraguay – Paraná Waterway, a topic of much current domestic and concern for thousands of argentines who enjoy the same and that poses serious challenges to government administrations. This is so we challenge does This present challenge deserves to maintain the current political status of the use of the Waterway established since 1995 or will be necessary for the construction of a deepwater port in the vicinity of Bahía Samborombón that facilitates the transfer of loads?
Surely many will wonder that links this issue with the contention of power between the USA and the RPCH. We assume that held so many interests given that Argentina should define how you would manage the same, which leads to rethink if your logistics (employment multimodal/or the perimido system by truck), the infrastructure necessary to continue exporting/importing the same (path channels, dredging, lighting, ports, Railways, wagons, etc). In brief summary, the tissue of business partnerships that make a future strategic partner, where in addition to weighing the interests of the MERCOSUR, and the provinces that are part of the Waterway and the la Plata basin.
Only by way of example, the drought caused by the presence of the Girl and that led to a lack of rainfall in the upper basin of the Paraná river, in the Mato Cool brazilian, he put in check the current design of management of PPH and the logistics multimodal because it revealed the shortcomings of the current system. Ships were no longer able to carry the loads expected in the ports usual load in close proximity to the pole exporter of Rosario and their adjacencies as a result of the above-mentioned drop, making it very onerous for the freight. Before it was introduced to the alternative of completing the load on the deep-water port of Necochea or Bahía Blanca who presented the drawback of the transfer of the grains for the state route, and the failure of the pathways of FFCC, and the unavailability of employment of templates available for the rail transport of containers on double-stack.
Which issues should be analyzed in detail to the possibility of occurrence of these natural phenomena. With respect to the waterway trunk, consider whether the dredging depth is compatible with the environment (environmental liabilities) /economy / carbon footprint. Think of the employment of a vessel design that is compatible with this (for LNG), for transport to transfer stations, load in the rada of The Silver, or in the area BRAVO (area of sandpaper all in the estuary of Samborombón), including the possibility of a multi-purpose port in the area of Punta Piedras, near the heart productive argentine, because it was urgent to reduce the costs of freight caused by the logistics. In the immediate revitalize the use of the port of La Plata, moving with flat push products from the ports of the interior, Paraná and Santa Fe priority.
Marine Pollution is a variable that destroys the life of the oceans and therefore of the planet.
40% of the ocean is affected by pollution, which negatively impacts on habitats and biodiversity. Plastic pollution, and in particular the microplásticos is causing serious problems in the marine fauna, both for its physical presence and for their chemicals to be released. Studies estimate that 13 million tonnes of plastic reaching the ocean each year, causing, among other damage, the death of 100,000 species. It has been proven that about 80% of the pollution that reaches the ocean is attributed to land-based sources. Both the companies that operate in the ocean as on land have an impact on the ocean, which must be considered in its activities and operations.
The degradation of the ecosystem and the loss of sustainability: As in some countries of Europe, more than half of the costa is urbanised compared to 2% of the interior of the territory. Approximately 20% of the world's coral reefs have been lost and another 20% have been degraded and, according to the Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change (IPCC), even with decisive action to stabilize the global warming by the year 2050, it will lose 70% to 90% of coral reefs today. On the other hand, the excess of nutrients from agriculture that enters the ocean cause eutrophication, creating areas without oxygen, resulting in the death of most of the marine life. Improper treatment of wastewater also aggravates this problem, one aspect of this is that Argentina has not been treated with due haste. The notorious example you may find it in the treatment of the problem of the basin of the rio Matanza-Riachuelo (ACUMAR).
The industrial wastes are the most serious form of pollution of the sea, which come from the rivers or directly dumped in the waters marine/ocean. The unrestricted and uncontrolled advance industrial and technological causes a “marine pollution” that by this means it disperses to remote locations. There have been more cases of this type of pollution by factories of chlorine, pesticides, and other items that they turn their industrial waste and chemicals into the sea.
Finally, the pollution caused by the dumping of oil (mainly) and other substances (pesticides, pesticides, petrochemicals, detergents, organic chemicals, metals, radioactivity, etc). The discharge of these substances causes the contamination of the medium (water), the destruction of nature and the breakdown of ecosystems.
It has been established that some species of the southern patagonian of our country, such as penguins and certain species of shellfish and fish, have the presence of mercury and other metals that directly threaten human life from ingestion and consumption.
Marine contamination by radioactivity, where the waste atomic, by accident, ultimately go to the waters and seabed and the ocean floor. This type of pollution has a direct source in the utilization of atomic energy industry and various plants, the propulsion of modern ships, for the transportation of radioactive elements from water, etc
Although, it is still not a disaster has occurred-radioactive marine, various nuclear powers to perform atomic testing in water. This type of pollution has various examples that have been given in the story: as an example of the immediate importance of this issue, we carried out the rescue of the united states in 1974 of a nuclear submarine, Russian sunk to five thousand feet of depth in the vicinity of Hawaii, where it was confirmed that the remains were contaminated with radiation.
The consequences of marine pollution are going to generate massive migrations by the destruction of their habitats and the consequent lack of food and drinking water.
Overfishing and the discard
The United Nations Organization for Food and Agriculture (FAO) estimates that approximately 60% of fish stocks are fully exploited, and in the other 30% is fished unsustainably. Fish stocks are exploited even more by the middle of the fishing illegal, unreported and unregulated (INRND), which is responsible for approximately 11/26 million tonnes of catch of fish annually. Operating in this activity approximately 300 ships poteros third flags are mainly chinese, taiwanese, Korean, and Spanish are devoted to the exploitation of the squid Illex Argentinus. Except for the chinese, the rest with license issued by the illegal and illegitimate government of the Malvinas. To this we must add a number variable of around 70 vessels supply and reefers that provide support to the fishing distant and move on to the proceeds of the same to ports close to the area, Falkland islands and Montevideo.
Here we present a series of circumstances that motivates a particular analysis and is related to the internationality of the scenario in the area called the sea, which is outside the scope courts of the State of argentina, which limits the control of excess fishing. The existence of the conflict with the UK conditions the creation of an Organization of Fisheries Management (RFMOS), allowing the establishment of standards for the co-management of resources which also have the characteristic of being straddling and highly migratory (according to the Agreement of New York). Today the conflict with the UK prevents that may be established multilateral agreements as provided for in the above-mentioned Agreement, however, in the interests of the protection of ecosystem cauldron the south-west should be considered seriously the layout of bilateral agreements with at least the actors of third flags present in the scenario, in particular the RPCH who in addition to being the actor most important in the South Atlantic since the year 2007 will not purchase fishing licenses to the Falklands and has supported often enough to Argentina in the claim for the cause Malvinas before the UN. What this leads to the question, the scope of the possible strategic alliance with the RPCH in the management of the living resources of the South Atlantic?
A second issue is the involvement of ecosystem that comes from the discard. In the waters of the South Atlantic, it is estimated that the national fleet discards approximately 850 000 tonnes of fish per year, mostly the species of shrimp and hake. A problem that is played both inside and outside of the boundaries of jurisdictional argentine. In the Area adjacent to the ZEEA the lack of controls makes priceless the impact of this practice is predatory. What in the sake of the protection of the resources, will be required bilateral agreements? With whom?" Do these agreements implications would be in the national interest? How would contribute to the cause Malvinas?
Other matters to consider in relation to this subject, and that are geopolitical interest in relation to the governance of the seas. Since the year 2008, the United Nations Program for Environment (UNEP) is warning that at least three-quarters of the fishing areas key to the world may be seriously impacted by changes in the circulation, as a result of the weakening and collapse of the pumping systems of the natural ocean.
These pumps natural, located in different sites throughout the world including the Arctic and the Mediterranean, bringing nutrients to the fisheries and maintain healthy rid of wastes and pollutants. The increase of the temperature of the surface of the sea in the coming decades threatens to whiten and kill up to 80% of the coral reefs in the world, one of the main tourist attractions, natural defense against the sea and fish hatcheries. This in turn may have an impact on the formation of the calcium in sea shells and coral, but also in the small organisms are planktonic, the base of the food chain.
The findings appear in a rapid response report entitled “In Dead Water” – water dead, which contains for the first time the map of the multiple impacts that pollution, the exotic pests, overfishing and climate change occur in the seas and oceans. “But the worst thing is the concentration in the 10 to 15% of the oceans of the cumulative impacts of climate change with existing pressures of over-harvesting, trawling with nets, pests, invasive species, coastal development and pollution,” the report states.
This percentage of the oceans is much greater than previously supposed, and “coincides with the fishing areas more important”, including nearly 7.5% estimated the fishing areas with more economic value of the world, he adds.
The Report In Dead Water presents in an unique way the impact of a number of pressures that are harmful and that persist in the fisheries. It also highlights the likely impacts of climate change, the product of the alternations dramatic in ocean circulation, which affects perhaps the three fourth parts of the main fishing areas to the concern over acidification of the oceans. A question that today is replicated in various parts of the world and it is relevant in the formation of the currents of the Boy or Girl.
“Climate change threatens coastal infrastructure, food supply, the water supply and the health of the people around the world. Clearly seen from this report and others, that the climate change will add significantly to the pressures on fish stocks. This is not just an economic issue and development, but also environmental. Millions of people, including many of the developing countries, obtained their livelihood from fishing, while that around 2,600 million people get their protein from the fruits of the sea,” he said.
In our particular case, for example, UNCLOS, it does not include the protection of marine biodiversity in areas adjacent to the EEZ, in a way that nearly two-thirds of the ocean waters are unprotected. The 193 Un member States tried to achieve in 2020-2021 a Global Treaty for the Oceans to protect the marine biodiversity beyond national borders, although at the time not have shown encouraging results were.
We should not forget a recent event that has taken public and that relates to the conservation of the Southern Ocean or the Antarctic, which spans from the Southern continent to the 60 ° South, and which has become a ‘piece’ of the board of the global geopolitics in the science, once again, has put the tests, which indicate that you have to protect the most vulnerable parts urgently, but some decisions, such political and economic, are going through other avenues. Today is more difficult than 30 years ago to achieve a consensus for that four million square kilometres of water –the Weddell Sea, Antarctica East and around the Antarctic Peninsula– to become marine reserves and protected. Thus it was found in the event, which was held recently to celebrate the 30th anniversary of the Madrid Protocol, which has served to protect the environment in the continent of ice since 1991.
All of the above should prompt a detailed analysis of the scenario for part of Argentina for several issues of geopolitical order and generate consistently, and that we have already been exposed earlier, a state policy consensus and perennial. Below are some aspects that we consider to be thought of.
The first issue, is that we understand that the agreement AUSKUS put even more away from the commitment argentine recover the Malvinas, Georgias and South Sandwich, and its waters for the protection of the international law . We assume that the actor of weight in the negotiation, the US has strengthened their commitments with the UK so it is expected that the context in international push to keep the status quo in effect, a circumstance which insures the military control of the stage for the party to its historic ally and unconditional. We also assume that this situation will affect the negotiations for the recognition of sovereign future of the Antarctic peninsula, where, as we have seen both the UK and Chile have the same territorial claims, and as we have also stated, the weight of a majority of the Commonwealth, regardless of Brexit.
The second, is related to the also need to establish and strengthen partnerships with the countries that are part of the scenery with the one who must work together for the management of resources and from there, the maritime domain of the same. In this sense, Argentina must understand that by itself will not be able to face the challenges that are presented to and that you must agree to concessions to give solution to the conflict, without forgetting its constitutional mandate.
The third goes hand in hand with the Brexit and the need for negotiation for the establishment of bilateral agreements for the management and conservation of living resources and finite stage South Atlantic and antarctic. The weight of both the RPCH as Russia in the international context, and in particular the development of antarctic of both actors, motivates re-think the design of new strategies into the fabric of alliances/agreements that balance the power play on the stage, at the time with the supremacy of the anglo.
The fourth, the detailed analysis of the regulatory framework that links all the problems present in the scenario, particularly the so-called Agreements of Madrid and the Treaty of Rio de la Plata to Uruguay. We assume that Argentina must finally understand the existence of the conflict, and that the same is rooted in the political, not historical, regardless of the validity of your supporting documentation, as well as that there is an inseparable link between the la Plata basin and the Southwest Atlantic.
Finally, consistent with the applicable international and the national legal system, adjust the official measures designed to preserve resources and to promote the defense of the national interest. Urges the path of a new contract with the national companies for employment-intensive fishing under the General law of the Environment 25675.
Maritime governance
The architecture of governance in the sea is growing at a rapid pace. It involves a large number of institutions and actors, as organizations and international regimes, public and private actors, networks, knowledge and policy and forums that you will play in multiple spaces jurisdictional. It has been argued that the concept of governance of the oceans consists of three components distributed across four spatial scales: global, regional, national and sub-national levels. The three components are:
- Rules that assign authority and jurisdiction from the general to the specific. UNCLOS is the fabric of norms and rules of a greater extent to the which can be included and other legal instruments and regimes, regional or international partial bi-or multilateral complementary. Eg. Agreement of New York.
- The patterns of institutional commitments to international and national levels and by policies, and infrastructure management from a sectoral basis, that have important functions binding. Among others:
- Commission for the Delimitation of the Continental Shelf.
- International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea.
- United Nations organization for Food and Agriculture (FAO), in particular the Department of Fisheries and Aquaculture, who defines the governance mechanisms in fishing issues.
- Law of Maritime Spaces.23.968. Federal law of Fishing 24922. General law of the Environment 25675.
- The plot rules that comprise the governance processes of the sea sets standards of behavior against which they can contrast the domestic policies, international and regional sectoral implemented and to verify the behavior of the actors that are part of these processes. These processes seek to provide traceability to the management to reduce the uncertainties and to avoid the potential consequences of selfishness, the rational choice or strategic calculation.
According to this characterization, the development and implementation of policies taking into account the constraints of structural, institutional and procedural at the level of both international and domestic.
In the field of the problematic maritime in the scenario Southwest Atlantic, most threats are derived from IUU fishing, cross-border activity that requires the cooperation and coordination between the various States. The gaps in the global governance give rise to behaviors that are deficient in areas with a limited capacity of surveillance, such is our case. Reinforcing the above, it is essential to face the rules that govern fishing in the framework of the environmental standards that are conducive to sustainability in business operations, as well as coordination between governments and industries in both marine and terrestrial.
At the national / subnational the problem remains in the control of the fishing activity within jurisdictional waters argentine, where known practices misleading with respect to the excess of catches under a system of control, little transparent. This truncates the ability to provide better working conditions, generating economic stagnation, lower employment, higher poverty, and inequitatividad social, which shows the mismanagement, bureaucratic state and that would result in social tensions and instability.
Regarding this last point, we can conclude that what is listed is not the consequence of the absence of standards, but to practices diffuse covered by a system prebendario profiting in a bureaucratic jungle where they live, historically, those who administer the resource with the one who exploits it.
The proposal, which will then be drafted relevant policies is:
At the national level, the creation of a federal basis to centralize information financial about public and private ports enabled, ships in operations, areas of production, processing, transportation and shipping, so counting on a permanent basis and updated with the information necessary for the monitoring and control of the proceeds, both in terms of the trade as illicit trafficking, of which should involve the AFIP, the Ministry of Security, Ministry of Transport, the office of the Undersecretary for Ports and Waterways, and Merchant Marine, the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries, the Undersecretary of Fisheries and Aquaculture, Ministry of Defense, the INTA, the SENASA, INIDEP, and other agencies with responsibility in the matter. Also, provide the necessary means to maintain the activities of scientific research, fisheries, and the surveillance of the stage according to the magnitude of the scenario Southwest Atlantic.
In the international, the realization of bilateral agreements, which involve the joint management of the fishery resource.
b.- Economic development
The Economic Development is the central axis of a country to create the wealth needed to build prosperity and social well-being of its inhabitants. Since the time of the discoveries and conquests, the maritime field, was the means of implementation of the development through trade, implementing a system to link between central cities and their overseas territories, being the river transportation is the main tool for trade, both for the flow of goods, as the goods of the said territories. For this reason, the activity in the port, along with the need to ensure an inland waterway, maritime and safe harbors, became key issues.
The Argentine Republic has an extensive coastline and a navigable waterway river-relevant (formed by the rivers of the Plata, Paraná, Uruguay, and Paraguay) on which is situated an important set of port facilities, for use in both public and private, of which approximately 80 registered commercial activity in the present.
The foregoing makes it necessary to think of the current system Waterway (type of vessel and its productive structure) that have been substantially transformed from when you conceived to bring the ship to the load.
Expanding what's already said above, though, from another approach, this political decision that buried the idea of construction of a deepwater port in the vicinity of the bay of Samborombón and promoted the development of the area next to Rosario (Rosafe) achieving a substantial reduction of costs of transportation and that, along with the biotechnology allowed to duplicate the productive surface Argentina and triple exports. But that was the context that was given until 2010 where I outcast the development of Santa Fe to the North, particularly because there are fostered political control and strategic for the road, a circumstance that was removed competitiveness in a large part of the accesses of the public ports.
The development this sea transport (ships Panamax) requires the improvement of the waterways (reach depths of 40 feet) and the use of non-polluting energies (LNG) to not affect the environment. Within this context, Argentina should be structured, a new design multi-modal logistics that impersonate the truck and prepondere the maritime transport with barges and the train and the development of the infrastructure necessary to operate all times throughout the year (improvement of springs and the hinterlands of access to them).
A little more than half a century the merchant marine of argentina was the second of the hemisphere, surpassed only by the united States. Argentina rose from 36% of the total freight market of the foreign trade in 1981, to 0.9% today. The fleet river, to cite another example, only transports the 2% of the load flow of the Mercosur. The shipping activity in argentina has been reduced to the maritime cabotage as the river transport on the Waterway Parana, Paraguay is dominated by Paraguay, Brazil and Bolivia to the lack of units in argentina. The shipbuilding industry to argentina in his time he was 5 thousand workers, 5 thousand technical, with the ability to make oil tankers and vessels intended for the defence. Today are built to 2,000 barges and 200 thrusts in Asunción, where there are five major shipyards. On the contrary, Argentina purchase warships, fishing with tax exemptions and scientific research abroad. Argentina needs to reach a consensus and agree on agreements to the public, which is to strengthen public policies. It is time for a change of geopolitical vision and awareness at sea in order to strengthen the sovereignty strategic market for goods and services.
This development of the waterway involves the shipbuilding industry and the traffic of barges, and the flags sailing PPH, today mostly in Paraguay and Bolivia. To be competitive, and thus develop a national flag it is necessary to reduce labor costs and taxes and to think of promotion schemes tax.
In a broader concept of economic development is estimated that the blue economy in Argentina could generate in the next 20 years, in a conservative scenario, a value of 216 billion dollars, with a potential of foreign exchange generation of 157 billion dollars and the creation of 169.209 new jobs (Baruch and Drucaroff, 2018). An estimate mostly concentrated in the more traditional sectors of the blue economy leaving aside some of the emerging activities and higher content of knowledge and innovation, such as aquaculture, the blue energy (oceanic and offshore wind), blue technology or new materials of marine origin with a vast field of application in pharmaceutical, agriculture, livestock etc A look at the international scenario shows how the efforts are increasingly focusing on these emerging sectors, given its horizontality, content knowledge, and potential for added value and innovation (European Commission, 2019; Johnson and Dalton 2018; World Bank 2016).
The geopolitical issues in the scenario AS and antarctic, and the design of a maritime strategy
Argentina faces a significant challenge in the framework of a huge internal weakness and eloquent external vulnerability. Depending on the future needs that are emerging in a national and international context marked by the advances of technology and artificial intelligence, climate change, the weaknesses of maritime governance and conflict with regard to the dispute over sovereignty of the Falklands, Georgia, Sandwich South, the waters and the Antarctic which is not absent the contention of power between the RPCH and the USA. we estimate convenient address multidisciplinariamente the study of the following issues that we assume should be considered for the design of a maritime strategy agreed at the highest level of the domestic policy and that we think would contribute to the defence of national interests in the scenario described in the next decade.
- Antarctica and the conflict in the archipelago of the Falkland islands and their waters concerned. The steps bioceanic and its geopolitical importance.
- The rivers and their relationship with the sea and the estuary of the Plata. The PPH. The dredging, the boyado, the dams, the areas of sandpaper all, the Canal Magdalena, etc
- The la Plata Basin and the estuary of Bahía Blanca and its relationship with the stage AS. The management of federal coastal areas.
- The development of the Patagonia (space near empty was). Access free to routes and ports patagonian and connection with the Land of Fire without interference. The polo logistical antarctic.
- Tourism to the antarctic and water sports.
- Maritime transport. The foreign trade. The National Shipping, the maritime and the inland waterway.
- Development of the shipbuilding industry and the importance of the shipyards.
- The port management and logistics multimodal associated. The multimodal transportation system recovering the strategic planning of railways, waterways and the border crossings.
- The deep-water ports or areas of transfers middle of The dry ports.
- The problem of fishing. The living resources of the sea and aquaculture. The IUU fishing. The discarding of fishing. The legislation in force. The control of the produced fishing ports.
- The generation of hydroelectric power, tidal power and wave power.
- Marine scientific Research and the care of the marine biodiversity. The protection and conservation of the marine ecosystem. The seabed and the exploitation of geological resources and energy.
- The laying of submarine cables and the Hinterland associated.
- Marine Protected Areas as an imperative geopolitical.
- The monitoring and control of the maritime spaces, inland waterways of national interest.
- The National Defense designed for a framework of STRATEGIC UNCERTAINTY and with a strong network of alliances agreed at the highest level of politics.
A very important aspect and that crosses all the problems exposed, is to promote educational quality. All the effort the social and economic topic will be little, because of their potential identity arises out of ARGENTINA and the national consciousness. Education in a country like ours, it undoubtedly ends up being a party to the conflict's strategic, especially where the pandemic has made havoc in education.
Perhaps if we generate the national consciousness, we can visualize this reality exposed and the argentine to be able to glimpse the unknown, and that this action is translated into the nerve mobilizer that motivates the interest and the defense of what belongs to us.
In this context, to our knowledge the design of this maritime strategy and the design of policies of state post, requires three basic conditions.
to.- To recognize the scale of the challenge and reach the essential national political consensus on the matter. Argentina should get out of the trap generated by self-interest and foreign insolvency strategic, sustained through the ideology in a global world increasingly unstable and in need of resources.
b.- The path of alliances, at least at the regional level. To do this it is necessary to establish an axis geopolitical view of the challenges of the context, and that the same should be consensual and perennial. Seriously consider the role of Argentina in front of the main actors present in the South Atlantic, and those who today are created to solve your power issues in other places and that inevitably affect the interests of the argentines.
All of this because we understand, cope with the reality national policy, which characterize geopolitically the country allows us to avoid discussions rhetoric about the destination of same and to better understand their foreign policy, above ideologies or “fashion” circumstantial policies that have led us to this present.
c. - Possess an IIMM according to the needs of the challenges of the century in march that were already set out in the document TG.
The Battle of the Falklands in 1982 meant to Argentina, there is a reduction in geopolitical with the loss of control of a vast territory, insular and maritime. After 39 years from the end of the war the Argentine has found the ways to achieve the restoration of the territories in dispute. We assume that this involvement of one of the vital interests of the Nation is a result of the state of helplessness argentine, an invisible issue for the majority of argentines on the that weighs a huge load ideological. This situation is a consequence of the progressive withdrawal of the military instrument of argentine in the scenario Southwest Atlantic (AS) a matter that in addition to slow the integral development of the Nation, has deprived itself of a key tool of foreign policy to negotiate for the alleged national interests.
Considering the internal state of Argentina and its international positioning, we believe that it is extremely important and urgent to agree on a policy decision that, oblivious to the apasionamientos ideological feels the basis for establishing State policies that rethink the need to endow the Nation of mi according to the challenges of the century in march. We assume that such action policy should consider at least three important issues and contribute to the exposed up here.
- Comply with the provisions of art 8 of the National Defense law that says that, among other issues, the National Defence System shall aim to
- Determine the hypotheses of conflict and those which should be retained as a hypothesis of war;
- To develop the hypothesis of war, establishing for each of them the means to employ;
- Establish greater coordination with respect to the control of all the activities that are linked with the sea. Could be designed a Ministry of the Sea where you interact with those areas related to the generation of wealth and development from the sea and to the sea (Fishing, Merchant Marine, Naval Industry, Production, Foreign Trade, etc), as well as the protection of the same, marine scientific Research, fisheries, technology, Defence, Security, the preservation of ecosystem and biodiversity of the marine environment.
- The modification of the budget for the defense. The tables below allow you to observe the effort that has been undertaken by the argentine State in ensuring the protection of their national interests.
It is evident the reduction of the budget for the military instrument from the decade of the 90s, which coincides temporally with the promulgation of the law of Internal Security where were they reflected the differences between the Defence and Internal Security.
With this design, budgetary, where approximately 80% of the same is used for the covering of the wages of its members, with deep certainty, some experts have concurred in saying that the Argentine Republic was in a state of helplessness, particularly in the sea now three decades ago due to the inability to cope with the emerging threats of the century in march. Perhaps serve as a reference to justify the above remember the fire in the navigation of the Icebreaker ARA “Almirante Irizar” (2007), the collapse in port of the Destroyer ARA “Holy Trinity” (2013) or the loss of navigation of the Submarine ARA San Juan” (2018).
In the graph below specifies how to invest the budget within MINDEF .
Source: Ganeau Eduardo. Essay Need of a Strategic perspective for the Defense. CARI. INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY AND STRATEGIC AFFAIRS.
The National Defense has important resources organization, human and material resources with capabilities of command and control, mobility, surveillance and intelligence, logistics and combat operations and humanitarian assistance can contribute to and protect the territorial integrity established in the National Constitution and its laws taxpayers that is partially seized, threatened, and in dispute, and is the great challenge that the argentine people and their governments do not want to face.
Annex 1
ROUND / Res. | Technology | ID Project | Province | Locality | Project | Strategic Partner | PO BID (us$/MWh) | Power Awarded (MW) | Date Signature Contract | Probable date of Entry | Date Added Contract |
1 | EOL | EOL-14 | BUENOS AIRES | Bahia Blanca | P. E. Garcia del Rio | BREEZE OF THE COAST, SA | 49,81 | 10,0 | 23/01/2017 | 14/11/2019 | 14/11/2019 |
1 | EOL | EOL-17 | BUENOS AIRES | Buratovich | P. E. Winds of the Dry | ENVISION ENERGY 2 | 49,08 | 50,0 | 23/01/2017 | 05/04/2020 | |
1 | EOL | EOL-06 | BUENOS AIRES | Villalonga | P. E. Villalonga | GENNEIA I | 54,96 | 50,0 | 12/01/2017 | 19/12/2018 | 19/12/2018 |
1 | EOL | EOL-16 | NEUQUEN | Confluence | P. E. Meanders | ENVISION ENERGY 2 | 53,88 | 75,0 | 23/01/2017 | 31/12/2040 | |
1 | EOL | EOL-15 | RIO NEGRO | Pilcaniyeu | P. E. Hill High | ENVISION ENERGY 2 | 56,98 | 50,0 | 23/01/2017 | 31/12/2040 | |
1 | EOL | EOL-44 | BUENOS AIRES | Bahia Blanca | P. E. Corti | C. T. LOMA DE LA LATA | 58,00 | 100,0 | 23/01/2017 | 08/06/2018 | 08/06/2018 |
1 | EOL | EOL-22 | CHUBUT | Garayalde | P. E. Garayalde | 3 GAL SA | 59,00 | 24,2 | 12/01/2017 | 28/11/2018 | 28/11/2018 |
1 | EOL | EOL-35 | BUENOS AIRES | Villarino | P. E. Castellana | CP RENEWABLE | 61,50 | 99,0 | 12/01/2017 | 18/08/2018 | 18/08/2018 |
1 | EOL | EOL-33 | CHUBUT | Pampa del Castillo | P. E. Kosten | ENAT S. A | 59,41 | 24,0 | 23/01/2017 | 10/05/2020 | |
1 | EOL | EOL-05 | SANTA CRUZ | Las Heras | P. E. Winds Hercules | EREN | 62,88 | 97,2 | 23/01/2017 | 15/07/2020 | |
1 | EOL | EOL-08 | CHUBUT | Puerto Madryn | P. E. Chubut Norte | GENNEIA I | 66,00 | 28,4 | 12/01/2017 | 12/12/2018 | 12/12/2018 |
1 | EOL | EOL-46 | LA RIOJA | Arauco | P. E. Arauco II (Stage 1 and 2) | ARAUCO S. A. P. E. M. | 67,19 | 99,8 | 12/01/2017 | 14/03/2020 | 14/03/2020 |
1,5 | EOL | EOL-45 | BUENOS AIRES | Three Streams | P. E. Pampa | SINOHYDRO CORTPORATION LIMITED | 46,00 | 100,0 | 21/11/2017 | 31/12/2040 | |
1,5 | EOL | EOL-29 | BUENOS AIRES | Miramar | P. E. Miramar | ISOLUX INGENIERIA SA | 56,38 | 97,7 | 10/10/2017 | 15/06/2020 | |
1,5 | EOL | EOL-48 | BUENOS AIRES | Necochea | P. E. Winds of Necochea 1 | PLANTS on THE ATLANTIC COAST OF S. | 55,50 | 38,0 | 21/11/2017 | 08/02/2020 | 08/02/2020 |
1,5 | EOL | EOL-19 | LA PAMPA | General Acha | P. E. Flag | FACUNDO FRAVEGA | 49,98 | 36,8 | 12/09/2017 | 06/04/2019 | 06/04/2019 |
1,5 | EOL | EOL-09 | RIO NEGRO | Choele Choel | P. E. Pomona I | GENNEIA SA | 54,88 | 100,0 | 26/05/2017 | 12/07/2019 | 12/07/2019 |
1,5 | EOL | EOL-20 | SANTA CRUZ | Puerto Deseado | P. E. Of The Bicentennial | PETROQUIMICA COMODORO RIVADAVIA SA | 49,50 | 100,0 | 26/05/2017 | 13/03/2019 | 13/03/2019 |
1,5 | EOL | EOL-27 | CHUBUT | Puerto Madryn | P. E. Loma Blanca 6 | ISOLUX INGENIERIA SA | 53,53 | 100,0 | 10/10/2017 | 15/08/2020 | |
1,5 | EOL | EOL-37 | CORDOBA | Achiras | P. E. Achiras | CP RENEWABLE SA | 59,38 | 48,0 | 26/05/2017 | 21/09/2018 | 21/09/2018 |
1,5 | EOL | EOL-47 | LA RIOJA | Arauco | P. E. Arauco II (Stage 3 and 4) | WIND farm ARAUCO S. A. P. E. M. | 56,67 | 95,0 | 30/06/2017 | 31/12/2040 | |
1,5 | EOL | EOL-32 | MENDOZA | San Rafael | P. E. The Sosneado | COMPANY in MENDOZA ENERGY S. A. P. E. M. | 55,00 | 50,0 | 30/06/2017 | 31/12/2040 | |
202 | EOL | EOL-202-01 | CHUBUT | Trelew | P. E. Loma Blanca I | ISOLUX INGENIERIA SA | 76,23 | 50,0 | 31/05/2017 | 15/09/2020 | |
202 | EOL | EOL-202-02 | CHUBUT | Trelew | P. E. Loma Blanca II | ISOLUX INGENIERIA SA | 76,23 | 50,0 | 31/05/2017 | 08/02/2020 | 08/02/2020 |
202 | EOL | EOL-202-03 | CHUBUT | Trelew | P. E. Loma Blanca III | ISOLUX INGENIERIA SA | 76,23 | 50,0 | 31/05/2017 | 15/09/2020 | |
202 | EOL | EOL-202-04 | SANTA CRUZ | Puerto Deseado | P. E. Koluel Kayke II | Wind Koluel Kayke SA | 72,33 | 25,0 | 31/05/2017 | 31/12/2040 | |
202 | EOL | EOL-202-05 | CHUBUT | Malaspina | P. E. Malaspina I | CENTRAL WIND PAMPA MALASPINA S. A | 72,33 | 50,0 | 31/05/2017 | 15/07/2020 | |
202 | EOL | EOL-202-06 | CHUBUT | Puerto Madryn | P. E. Puerto Madryn I | GENNEIA SA | 76,23 | 70,0 | 31/05/2017 | 02/11/2018 | 02/11/2018 |
202 | EOL | EOL-202-07 | CHUBUT | Puerto Madryn | P. E. Puerto Madryn II | GENNEIA SA | 76,23 | 150,0 | 31/05/2017 | 26/09/2019 | 26/09/2019 |
2-F1 | EOL | EOL-003 | BUENOS AIRES | Garcia Del Rio | P. E. ENERGY I | CMS ARGENTINA SA | 37,30 | 79,8 | 18/05/2018 | 06/02/2020 | 06/02/2020 |
2-F1 | EOL | EOL-004 | LA PAMPA | General Acha | P. E. GENERAL ACHA | MIGUEL ONETO | 45,67 | 60,0 | 23/11/2018 | 15/05/2021 | |
2-F2 | EOL | EOL-010 | CHUBUT | Department Of Escalante | P. E. PAMPA, CHUBUT | ENEL GREEN POWER ARGENTINE SPA | 40,27 | 100,0 | 26/06/2018 | 31/12/2040 | |
2-F1 | EOL | EOL-016 | CHUBUT | Puerto Madryn | P. E. CHUBUT NORTE IV | GENNEIA SA | 38,90 | 82,8 | 26/06/2018 | 05/06/2020 | |
2-F1 | EOL | EOL-020 | CHUBUT | Puerto Madryn | P. E. CHUBUT NORTE III | GENNEIA SA | 38,90 | 57,6 | 26/06/2018 | 15/07/2020 | |
2-F2 | EOL | EOL-022 | BUENOS AIRES | Tornquist | P. E. SAN JORGE | PETROQUIMICA COMODORO RIVADAVIA SA | 40,27 | 100,0 | 12/07/2018 | 19/12/2019 | |
2-F2 | EOL | EOL-025 | BUENOS AIRES | Tornquist | P. E. THE MATACO | PETROQUIMICA COMODORO RIVADAVIA SA | 40,27 | 100,0 | 12/07/2018 | 19/12/2019 | |
2-F1 | EOL | EOL-029 | LA RIOJA | Aimogasta | P. E. ARAUCO II (STAGE 5 AND 6) | WINDAR RENOVABLES SL | 46,67 | 100,0 | 05/10/2018 | 31/12/2040 | |
2-F1 | EOL | EOL-035 | SANTA CRUZ | Cañadon Seco | P. E. GLEN LEON | YPF ELECTRICAL ENERGY SA | 41,50 | 99,0 | 23/11/2018 | 15/07/2020 | |
2-F1 | EOL | EOL-041 | BUENOS AIRES | Bahia Blanca | P. E. GENOVEVA | CENTRAL PUERTO SA | 40,90 | 86,6 | 26/07/2018 | 15/06/2020 | |
2-F2 | EOL | EOL-049 | CHUBUT | Comodoro Rivadavia | P. E. HEADBAND II | CAPEX SA | 40,27 | 27,6 | 04/06/2018 | 18/09/2019 | 18/09/2019 |
2-F1 | EOL | EOL-051 | BUENOS AIRES | Miramar | P. E. WINDS FRAY GUEN | SENVION GMBH | 39,55 | 100,0 | 04/06/2018 | 31/12/2040 |
Source: CAMMESA https://portalweb.cammesa.com/Documentos%20compartidos/Noticias/Mater/Informe%20Renovables%20DIC%202019.pdf
Note: The box is exemplified by the relationship between investment and generating clean energy (power MW) and its projection along the useful life of the turbine. Shows the lack of scale to absorb increasing amounts of demand.
BIBLIOGRAPHIC REFERENCES
International Energy agency (2019) World Outlook Energy 2019. Text available in: https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2019
International Energy agency (2020) World Outlook Energy 2020. Text available in: https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2020
International Energy agency (2021) World Outlook Energy 2021. Text available in: https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2021
International Energy agency (2021) The Role of Critical World Energy Outlook Special Report Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions. Text available in: https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions
International Energy agency (2021) Net Zero by 2050 To Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector. Text available in: https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050
Anderson, Robert, Branislav Mikulik and Eszter Sandor, 2010, Quality of life in the USA: trends in key dimensions 2003-2009, Internet, retrieved from: https://www.nsi.bg/sites/default/files/files/pages/dgins/dgins_papers/Eurofound%20Quality%20of%20life%20in%20the%20EU%20Trends%20in%20key%20dimensions.pdf
Ángel, María Eugenia, Graciela Fernandez, Laura Polola, Liliana Pagan, Silvia Brunetti, Miriam Ecalle and Enrique Borgona, 2006, Genesis and historical evolution of the concepts of probability and Statistics as a methodological tool, retrieved from https://economicas.unlam.edu.ar/descargas/5_b107.pdf
Batanero, Carmen, 2001, the Teaching of Statistics, Group Education Statistics, University of Granada, Department of Didactics of Mathematics, University of Granada, Granada, Spain.
Berger, James O., 2002, “Bayesian analysis: a look at today and thoughts of tomorrow”, in Adrian E. RAFTERY, Martin A. TANNER, and Martin T. WELLS (eds.), Statistics in the 21st Century, Chapman and Press Hall, London
Blázquez, J and José María Martín-Moreno (2012) Emerging Economies and the New Energy Security Agenda (ARI). Text available in: http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/wps/portal/rielcano_en/contenido?WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=/elcano/elcano_in/zonas_in/ARI33-2012
Global Trends (2021)
Christmann, P., Gloaguen, E., Labbé, J.-F., Melleton, J., & Piantone, P. (2015). Global lithium resources and sustainability issues. In A. Chagnes & J. Swiatowska (Eds.), Lithium Process Chemistry. Resources, Extraction, Batteries, and Recycling. Amsterdam (Netherlands), Oxford (UK), Waltham (USA): Elsevier.
National Population council (2000), Human Development Indexes In 2000, National Council of Population (CONAPO), Mexico.
National Population Council (2000). Indices of deprivation 2000, CONAPO, Mexico
Corrado, Luisa and Aqib ASLAM, 2012, “The geography of well-being”, in Journal of Economic Geography, vol 12, no. 3.
Cortes, Fernando, 2003, “income and inequality in its distribution in Mexico”, in Papers of the Population, number 35, Autonomous University of the State of Mexico, Toluca, Mexico
Delgado Ramos, Gian Carlo (2010). National and international security and natural resources. Magazine Homework. N° 135. (may-September). Center of Latin American Studies “Justo Arosemena”. Panama.
Ferreiro, Osvaldo Fernández, Peter, 1988, “Statistical science in the dispute”, in the University Magazine, no. 25.
Florini, A. and Dubash N. (2011). “Introduction to the Special Issue. Governing Energy in a Fragmented World. Global Policy, vol 2, special issue s1, pp. 1 – 5).
Florini, A. and Sovacool B. (2012). “Examining the Complications of Global Energy Governance”. Journal of Energy & Natural Resources Law, vol 30, N° 3, (pp. 235 – 263). FLORINI, A. and SOVACOOL B. (2011). “Bridging the Gaps in Global Energy Governance”. Global Governance, vol 17, N° 1 (pp. 57 – 74). FLORINI, A. and SOVACOOL B. (2009). “Who governs energy? The Challenges Facing Global Energy Governance”. Energy Policy, vol 37, N° 12 (pp. 5239 – 5248).
Fornillo, Bruno (2014). “What we call Strategic Natural Resources?: The case of li-ion batteries (2011-2014)” Magazine State and Public Policy No. 3.
Flexer, V., Baspineiro, C. F., & Galli, C. I. (2018). Lithium recovery from brines': the vital raw material for green energies with a potential environmental impact in its mining and processing. Science of the Total Environment, N° 639.
Frey, Bruno, 2012, What Should governments make people happy?, Fundación Barrié, paper presented on June 8, 2012, retrieved from: http://capital-socialenespanol.wordpress.com/2012/06/08/conferencia-de-bruno-frey-deberian-los-gobiernos-hacer-feliz-a-la-gente/
GIiovannini, Enrico and Hall Jon, 2006, Measuring well-being and societalprogress, OECD, retrieved from: http://www.beyond-gdp.eu/download/oecd _measuring-progress.pdf
Goldthau, A. (2012). “A Public Policy Perspective on Global Energy Security”. International Studies Perspectives, vol 13, N° 1, (pp. 65 – 84).
Goldthau To & Jan Martin Witte Eds (2010), global energy governance: The New Rules of the Game; global public policy institute, Berlin brookings institution press Washington, D. C.
Klare, M (2003). War for Resources. The future scenario of the global conflict. Editorial Uranus Trends. Barcelona. Spain.
Klare, M (2009). Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet: The New Geopolitics of Energy, Henry Holt and Company LLC, New York, United States.
Kohl, Wilfred H. “The new context of Energy Security post-2003”. Power Politics, Energy Security, Human Rights and Transatlantic Relations. Ed. Esther Brimmer. Washington, DC: Center for Transatlantic Relations, The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, The Johns Hopkins University, 2008.
Keohane, R. and Victor, D. (2011). “The Regime Complex for Climate Change”. Perspectives on Politics, vol 9, N° 1, (pp. 7 – 23)
Keohane, R (2011): Global governance and legitimacy, Review of International Political Economy, 18:1, 99-109
Legatum Institute, 2011, The 2011 legatum prosperity index, the Internet, retrieved from: http://www.prosperity.com
Medina, Fernando, 2001, Considerations on the Gini index to measure the concentration of income, serie Estudios estadísticos y prospectivos, the United Nations, Santiago de Chile.
Mikulik, Branislav, 2008, “Quality of life in Europe: concepts, measuremet and results”, the Internet, retrieved from: http://www.slideworld.org/viewslides.aspx/Branislav-Mikulic-QUALITY-OF-LIFE-IN-EUROPE-Concep-ppt-2527942
Ojeda, Mario Miguel, 2000, La Estadística en la perspectiva de su desarrollo, Universidad Veracruzana, recuperado de: http://www.uv.mx/acl/paginas/ciencia- 4.htm
Rao, Radhakrishna and Szekely Gabor, 2000, Statistics for the 21st century, Marcel Dekker, New York.
Ruiz de Aretxabaleta, Paul, 2008, Is looking for an alternative to measure the well-being, Internet, retrieved from: garanaiz.irrfo/paperezkoa/.../is-search-alternative-to-improve-well-being
Sahai, Hurdeo and Anwer Khurshid, 2002, Pocket dictionary of statistics, Mc-Graw Hill, New York.
Stiglitz, Joseph E., Amartya Sen, and Fitoussi, Jean-Paul I, 2008, Report by the Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress, Internet, retrieved from: http://www.stiglitz-sen-fitoussi.fr/documents /rapport_anglais.pdf
The World Nuclear Industry (2021) Status Report 2021. Text available in: https://www.worldnuclearreport.org/
Vega Amaya, Oscar, 2002, “the Emergence of the mathematical theory of probability”, in Notes of history of mathematics, volume 1, number 1.
Wild, Chris J. and Pfannkuch Maxime, 1999, “Statisticalthinking in empiricalenquiry”, in International Statistical Review, vol 67, no. 3.
Yañez channel, Sergio, 2000, “The Statistic, a science of the TWENTIETH century, Fisher genius”, in Revista Colombiana de Estadística, vol 23, no. 2.
Web Sites Consulted
- Center for the Study of Regulatory Activity in Argentina (CEARE). https://ceare.org/
- U. S. G. S United States Geological Survey https://www.usgs.gov/
- Word Energy Trade https://www.worldenergytrade.com
- International Energy agency https://www.iea.org/
- Working documents and analysis of the International Energy Agency https://www.iea.org/analysis
- Commission of the regional energy integration. International agency of the Energy Sector in Latin America and the Caribbean: https://www.cier.org/es-uy/Paginas/Home.aspx and https://www.cier.org/es-uy/Paginas/Home.aspx
- World Nuclear Industry: https://www.worldnuclearreport.org/
World Nuclear Report: https://www.worldnuclearreport.org/IMG/pdf /wnisr 2021-lr.pdf