Trends in strategic global and national reality

Based on the analysis of trends in the global strategic, of the points of impact are determined to be essential to the future of our country and the areas of uncertainty that are defined for the development of public policies, there will be a proposal of actions to carry out to exploit our strengths advantage of the opportunities and challenges, as well as reduce the risks and threats resulting from the vulnerabilities, in the present circumstances, in its foreseeable evolution and, especially, in those situations arising out of an international and regional environment that is volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous.

As was stated in the previous report, the initial element to the work of analysis is the document “Global Trends 2040” published by the National Intelligence Council of the united States of America (CNI 2021). Therefore, even considering the large number of actors and sectors involved in this work of research and analysis, which ensures and validates the reliability and accuracy of their conclusions, we must consider that the vision of its overall impact corresponds with the interests of the person involved, both in terms of the future envisioned as desired.

In this sense, the proposed actions will be oriented to satisfy the success of the public policy of interest to our country, which, although they may have a large number of points in common with the global problems and individuals from other countries influenced by similar trends, must address those factors more gravitantes of the national reality.

Also, we can define three temporary spaces, the present, the foreseeable future and the uncertain future. Although this simple classification could induce to think of the classic short, medium and long term, is simplification would not be at all valid. The characteristics of the environment (volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous) generate changes at a speed so great that the appearance of the black swans ceases to be an exceptionality, to be a consideration usual in the work of strategic analysis.

Public policies and the need for strategic information

To achieve the policy objectives, the government policies are implemented through decisions reflected in plans derived from a Sector Strategy, which in turn is the result of a strategy at the highest level. This strategy will be both more suitable and efficient, according to the available information about the factors that act on the situation that you want to keep or change for the success of the policy objectives provided.

As has been observed in the analysis of the Impact Points and the Areas of Uncertainty (first report), the complexity of the issues and topics discussed rarely has a solution, or routing in an exclusive area of the State, but even when some body may have primary responsibility, surely many others will have a concern that complements the political decision to optimize the results. For example, uncertainty exists today with respect to the future of Employment and the Labour Force.

In the first instance it seems that the concern priority is the responsibility of the Ministry of Labour, since this agency should be responsible for facilitating the conditions for a future capabilities, the appropriate legal framework and all the conditions which ensure that the Work factor contributing to the welfare and development of society. Even with certain data of the reality, its future projection is not simple, and therefore the Future of Employment and the Labour Force was determined as the Area of Uncertainty.

Little by little we began to delve into this issue, we may discover that many other aspects that influence the future of the workforce necessary, their characteristics, skills required, etc Aspects considered in the Areas of Uncertainty such as demographic changes, technological changes, the increased demand and competition for resources, among others, to quickly point us to other state agencies with responsibility in the future of work skills.

Different State agencies collect regular information related to these topics that influence directly in the economic policy, science and technology, health, etc., Between them, of note is the task of the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) which has as its responsibilities “to implement the policy statistics of the argentine State; structure and conduct of the National Statistical System (NSS); design methodologies for the statistical production; to organize and manage the operational statistical infrastructure; develop core indicators and information about social, economic, demographic, and geographic”.

This agency, whose efficiency and seriousness was recovered during the management of the national government in the period 2015-2019, previously it was used maliciously, and their data is handled with the political purpose of showing a socio-economic reality beneficial, but clearly deformed with respect to the evidence of the real situation. An example of this were the inflation data spoofed and the cancellation of the analysis of poverty data. It should be noted that, in both cases, private institutions undertake studies of inflation and poverty and the national state falseaba or refused, putting in evidence the importance of their assessment for the adoption of appropriate public policies.

Beyond the fairness and accuracy of the data from INDEC, and even relying on his right and honest development, these correspond to an ex post analysis, it is worth to say that they are the picture of a situation at a particular time. Even the forward-looking statements that are made, are the conclusions resulting from a succession of ex post analysis, such as a film composed by a box of photo after another that determines the following table.

The National Census of Population, Households and Dwellings, which is performed every ten years (in 2020 was suspended by the pandemic Covid-19) is a very important tool for understanding the demographic changes, both in terms of its location as well as in aspects of socio-economic and educational. They were very helpful and surely will continue to be. But how can we ensure that such a lapse of ten years is enough, compared to the volatility of the current environment and the speed of the changes, in particular the technology and its impact on the production and the work?

The analysis of global trends makes it clear to us that, even when there are trends that are clearly defined, the velocity and acceleration of the changes that leave us as a certainty more important to the pressing need to accept uncertainty as one of the most important factors for the adoption of efficient public policies.

We can say that the statistical data allow us to obtain certainty with respect to the current situation and its evolution with respect to previous periods, the so-called ex post analysis. But the definition of public policies require a prior ex-ante analysis, which is equivalent to clarify or define the picture the situation which it is expected to achieve from the actions designed.

Now, if all of the variables (factors favorable or adverse) that influence the feasibility of the proposed solutions were known, it would be easy to make the planning of each sectoral policy, even with measures or alternative actions, according to the behaviour of the variables.

Unfortunately, as we have said, the environment is volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous, so the behavior of the factors or variables strategic affecting the interest of its own policies is hardly predictable with the degree of certainty necessary for the achievement of the planned objectives.

The face of this uncertainty, the models of foresight or anticipation strategic allow you to design alternative scenarios that may come in response to the existing uncertainty. For this purpose, the technologies of information management and particularly artificial intelligence, which are especially helpful.

Without wishing to go into detail on these alternatives absolutely valid and valuable, we must consider that each one of those what-if scenarios, resulting from your analysis, generate the planning of actions or alternative measures, which involves the forecasting of resources usually scarce. Much more still, if these alternative scenarios could involve the modification or correction of the objectives that guided public policy.

It is thus that the achievement of the proposed policies and the situation of the expected (ex ante), with respect to the evolution of the future situation, requires of a reaction through the execution of plans and / or alternative actions that have already been planned. The worst possible situation would be one in which the alternatives were not provided, or the scarcity of the resources are not allowed to adopt them.

Having accurate information and timely about the behavior of the variables of strategic interest is the common factor that affects decision making, both in the design of public policies at national and sectoral levels, as in the adoption of short-term decisions for the achievement of political objectives.

The information, to be useful to the decision making must be relevant, that is to say, timely, appropriate and convenient, and something that with the media available in the State and with the participation of private institutions and civil society is totally possible.

Many times we observe, in front of events that require the need for changes in the decisions, that the necessary information is already available but not in a way relevant. This means that you do not have she the one to whom it is useful, incomplete, or not validated, or even that has been discarded because it does not comply with the desired goal in a particular sector of the State.

Many State agencies and other institutions are voracious gatherer of information, especially that which affects their private interests or sectoral. As was stated, the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) is a most important task in the data collection of the present situation that are used by everyone who requires it. Also, in some cases, making projections about their certain data.

However, recall that the achievement of the policy objectives involves starting from a known reality towards a desired situation and through this way the behavior of the essential factors for the decision making can be uncertain, especially those that are not dependent on one's own will. The development of efficient strategies requires forecasts and alternatives that allow them to act in a timely manner, appropriate and convenient, so that the relevant information happens to have strategic value. 

The Sectoral Strategies and Strategic Information

The Sectoral Strategies adopted by the different agencies of the State are derived and contributors to the National Strategy and the sum of his achievements is the success of the policy objectives. But this is not a simple sum math sectoral objectives are achieved, but that the complementarity of the same generates a positive synergy in the final result (the national policy objectives) results in a situation of development and security than the sum of the factors that generate it.

In the same way, the information that is of interest to strategic priority for one or more sectors of the State can be complementary to the decisions of the other, both for their utility as its validation. This cross-linking of information may be resolved through coordination among concerned agencies and, surely, this is how it works in many cases in an efficient way.

However, as well as Sectoral Strategies derived from a Strategy of more high-level, to which they contribute, we must also aspire to that the agency responsible for this National Strategy can have a broader view of strategic information needs and the relationship and responsibilities of each sector in the collection and analysis of data.

On the other hand, it is expected that each agency to plan your strategy for the sector in function of certain data obtained and their evolution is more likely, as it would be risky to raise alternative scenarios to resolve the uncertainties, without the endorsement of the who defines the strategy of the top-level.

In the case of our country, the Secretariat of Strategic Affairs should have the responsibility for developing the National Strategy, or as it is called in its meaning current National Security Strategy (NSS). In the ESN, which accurately outlines the way of achieving the policy objectives, they also define the strengths and vulnerabilities appreciated and their consequent risks, threats, challenges, and opportunities, including the degree of uncertainty with respect to the evolution of the environment.

From the recognition of the level of uncertainty, and its likely evolution comes the need of information about the behaviour of the factors considered essential for the achievement of political objectives. In an uncertain environment, the ESN is not a political direction immutable, but that contains forecasts alternatives depending on the result of the actions taken or the unforeseen changes.

The mission of the Secretariat of Strategic Affairs does not culminate in the definition of a Strategy, but that the monitoring of the situation is a permanent responsibility. The decision is not a final, but that uncertainty requires the constant evaluation of the resulting effects of the policies adopted and the behaviour of the environment.

For this monitoring task, it is essential to have the relevant information to obtain conclusions for guiding decisions with timely and relevant information that arises from the performance indicators, both of those factors that were considered essential to the strategic definition, as those are not provided. In the first case, we can implement the alternative actions necessary already considered, while to the appearance of unforeseen factors should be carried out a rapid assessment of the new situation.

So much for one as for the other case, it is essential to have the relevant information to take the right decision, so we can conclude that the formulation of a National Security Strategy is inseparable from the definition of the indicators of the behavior of those factors considered to be essential for the achievement of Political Objectives. This is particularly important in areas defined as greater uncertainty.

This task does not mean generate a superstructure of the gathering and analysis of information in the Secretariat of Strategic Affairs, but that is to assign the responsibility to centralize and coordinate the coordination in the management of the information essential to the National Strategy among sectoral Agencies with primary responsibility in each topic.

 The Area of Uncertainty about the Future of Employment and the Labour Force, both by their own characteristics such as its impact on other sectors, is a good example about how to dispose of relevant information to monitor the ESN.

Projection of Employment and the Labour Force

Considering that there is a great uncertainty regarding the future of employment and the labour force necessary, and that this constitutes an essential factor for the development and security of our country, it is desirable to determine what are the information requirements and the most appropriate indicators to assess its evolution.

This is not intended to be a proposal in the style of a manual of procedures, as it is this level of detail would not be matched with the role of the Secretariat of Strategic Affairs. It's simply a matter of making some questions whose answers enable the adoption of strategic decisions.

In this regard, by way of example, it raises some questions and the agencies suggested with primary responsibility for obtaining the data, its evaluation and timely response. To be consistent with the concept of continuous monitoring should be considered that the evolution of the uncertain environment shall require that, in future, be required to complete some questions that today are not even considered or imagined. To do this, we start from the assumption that all of the current information, prepared both by the INDEC as by the relevant agencies, has already been considered in the development of the Strategy of National Security “force.”

 We recall that in this Area of Uncertainty, it is concluded that: “The incorporation of technologies will continue to create new challenges for join the labour market, demanding new models of education, management, leadership, and work practices that include the assessment of the sustainability of the health systems and retirement partners, with a view to greater competition from the private activity on the state level.”

From this definition made some questions for sectors of interest, with an emphasis on global trends and their impact on our country:

Science and technology (Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation)

1. What are the skills required to be generated in the educational system?

2. What are your areas of interest where it is desirable to encourage immigration?

3. What is expected to be the retention of capacity built in the country? What measures are suggested to mitigate the migration?

4. What are the determinants and the key indicators of technological change is disruptive? How to anticipate their consequences?

Education (Ministry of Education)

1. What is the expected impact of the regional migration in each level of the education system?

2. What is the impact expected of the technological advances in the training of educators?

3. What is the stay of immigrants educated in our country, according to the level of education attained?

4. What is the expected evolution of the educational performance?

5. What are the forecasts of the national education system for the addition to our society quotas migrant significant?

6. What is the capacity of adapting the education system to the addition of new skills, especially adults?

7. What will be the indicators of future performance level of education?

Health (Ministry of Health)

1. What is the life expectancy projected for the next 10, 20, and 30 years?

2. What is the quality of life expected?

3. What will be the impact of the advancement of science and technology in the hope and quality of life?

4. What is the age and ability to work is expected for the next 10, 20, and 30 years?

5. What diseases will be predominant for the decrease of work capacity?

6. What predicts who will be the impact of temporary migration for their health care?

7. What is the impact on the public health system of the immigrants, tourists or residents not documented? What is the response of our public health system with respect to the countries of the region?

8. What are the critical indicators of the public health system and private medium-and long-term?

Social security (ANSES)

1. What will be the impact of the increase in life expectancy in the pension system?

2. What is the impact of the work is not documented in the collection of social security?

3. What would be the impact of the Universal allocation in the pension system?

4. What would be the impact of an incorporation advance to the pension system by a decrease in the demand for labor?

5. What are the critical indicators of the pension system in the medium and long term?

Labour (Ministry of Labour)

1. What will be the impact of the increase in migration in the labour market, depending on their level of education, low, medium, or university?

2. What is the impact percentage of migration motivations work, either temporarily or permanently? Is it feasible to consider the option contract temporary work?

3. What is expected to be the future of the labor organizations/guilds?

4. What would be the impact on the labour supply of the application of Universal Allocation? How to apply should be exclusive to national?

5. What are the working conditions foreseeable to retain in our country companies of high technological value?

6. What are the forecasts of labor conditions for a context of increased employment technology?

Social action (Ministry of Social Development)

1. What predictions do you have for the social care of contingent migration is not expected?

2. What predictions do you have for the social care in the face of emergencies by social disputes?

The preceding questions are set out as a simple example of many other possible, assuming that the answers will surely be able to open more questions. The goal is not to build a round eternal of data, but rather to identify the most significant indicators of the most influential factors in the strategy adopted to evaluate the result of the public policies, continuity, and/or modification.

As you can see, some of the questions correspond to more than one sector in question and the answers will have an impact in other areas different to the question. The integration of the information will be essential for the assessment of the National Security Strategy and the taxpayers Sectoral Strategies.

Surely many of the questions raised already have the answer, and it is even likely that there will be public or private bodies for answers to questions that still have not been made, but whose content is of great interest for the National Strategy. It may be that many of the questions and their corresponding answers do not have influence on the predicted situation and the decisions made, but with some of them succeed to decrease the uncertainty of the environment will surely allow you to achieve the policy objectives in an efficient use of the scarce resources.

The strategic environment requires a discipline of ongoing work to reduce the uncertainty. The practice of making questions, analyze the answers, design proposals for achieving the objectives and to evaluate the evolution of the desired situation, builds strategic culture, theory and practice which constitutes an essential element of any Nation that seeks to define your direction and keep you.