CLIMATE CHANGE, GEOPOLITICAL COMPETITION SINO-AMERICAN AND THE POLARIZATION OF THE ARGENTINE SOCIETY AS CHALLENGES AND FUTURE TRENDS TO FLOWER OF SKIN

CLIMATE CHANGE, GEOPOLITICAL COMPETITION SINO-AMERICAN AND THE POLARIZATION OF THE ARGENTINE SOCIETY AS CHALLENGES AND FUTURE TRENDS TO FLOWER OF SKIN

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CLIMATE CHANGE, GEOPOLITICAL COMPETITION SINO-AMERICAN AND THE POLARIZATION OF THE ARGENTINE SOCIETY AS CHALLENGES AND FUTURE TRENDS TO FLOWER OF SKIN

SUMMARY:

The present work aims to analyze, in an objective and comprehensive, the present and future impact of some trends in the global strategic in Argentina, within a period of ten years. Taking into account that this period concerns from the present until 2030 or so, in this first stage will be explained individually three major trends from its contextualization and problematization. In a nutshell, global trends chosen are: climate change, geopolitical competition sino-american, and the polarization of societies, in particular argentina. Subsequently, in a second stage, we include a number of proposals for the elaboration of public policies in relation to the three trends mentioned above.

Introduction:

The writing that is presented is going to analyze the impact on Argentina, with a view to the next ten years, three trends in the global strategic selected at the discretion of the author. The themes of the work are evaluated from the perspective of governance and strategic issues. The purpose of this analysis is to visualize the opportunities, challenges, risks and threats that these trends are dynamic and represent to the growth of our country. The three trends are the following: first, the incidence and management of climate change in Argentina; second, the effects of the competition between the people's Republic of China and the united States of America in our country; third, the polarization of the argentine society and the reconfiguration of identities around the political. Let's start in order, but not before translate below other relevant concepts that we define and we agreed together in the bosom of the research team. 

A “trend” can be understood as “a pattern of behavior of the elements of a particular environment during a period considered. In turn, the ideas driving” are “structural forces (or “drivers”) main shape the future dynamics and have a range relatively universal, interact and intersect with other factors to affect the dynamics emerging”. Linked to this, the “dynamic emerging” consist of the “appearance, throughout the time of emergent phenomena” generally assuming that “the emergency is an amazing phenomenon at the level of the global behavior of the system.” Understanding the international system as a complex system, you can be sure, then, that “the national security will require not only defend against armies and arsenals, but also to resist and adapt to these challenges, global shares”. 

To - The incidence and management of climate change in Argentina

Within the perspective of the strategic issues, fuel system of this model to the management of climate change. What is this? Consensuamos that makes reference to the “change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activities that alter the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods”. In close relation, the climate change adaptation consists in “changes in human systems and natural as a response to climatic stimuli projected or actual, or their effects, which can moderate harm or exploit their beneficial aspects”. 

Delving into the context of climate change at the global level, it is worth to bring up one of the recent reports published by the Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, for its acronym in English). In the month of August of the current year, the Group stated that “the concentrations of current global carbon dioxide (CO2) maximum torque and maximum power are found at higher levels than at any other time in at least the past two million years” (IPCC, 2021, chapter 2: 5, the translation itself). Also, it is stated that the “observed changes in the atmosphere, the oceans, the arctic cryosphere and the biosphere provide unequivocal evidence of a world that has warmed (...) during the past decades, the key indicators of the climate system are increasingly at levels not seen in centuries or millennia, and are changing at a rate unprecedented in at least the last 2000 years” (IPCC, 2021, chapter 2: 6, a translation).

The reality and the projections show that, if GHG emissions continue to do so, or increase, will be forgotten the goal of the landmark Paris Agreement, which posed avoid that, to the end of the century, the global temperature exceeds 2 ° C, or if it is possible to 1.5 ° C, relative to pre-industrial levels. The light that scenario, the consequences will be actually significant, not to say catastrophic, for the planet and humanity. 

According to the IPCC report previously cited, since pre-industrial times, the global temperature increased by 1.1 ° C, due to the emission of more than 2400 thousands of millions of tons of Co2 to the present, and other emissions of different GHGS that are not Co2 (IPCC, 2021). Taking into account that approximately 40 billion tons of Co2 are emitted from year to year, on average, the journey to meet the goal of the Paris Agreement is becoming more and more narrow and uphill. 

According to the IPCC, to prevent the global average temperature climb above 1.5 ° C relative to pre-industrial levels, it is imperative to “a reduction of CO2 emissions 45% by 2030, or a 25% reduction in 2030 to limit warming to 2 ° C” (UNFCCC, September 2021). The commitment of those countries to GHG reduction is reflected in the Contributions Determined at the National level (NDC are its acronym in English), which are presented regularly to the COP (Conference of the Parties). Thus, such commitments must be increasingly ambitious to comply with such prospects. But, if one considers the set of the NDC presented by all countries to the present, this all means a considerable increase of global GHG emissions in 2030 compared to 2010, of around 16 % (...) (and) unless you modify quickly, may lead to a temperature increase of around 2.7 ° C by the end of the century” (UNFCCC, September 2021).

In line with this projection, “it is likely that in the next 20 years the global warming exceeds 1.5°C, while it is directed towards the 2°C possibly towards the mid-century (...), the cumulative emissions that are already in the atmosphere will cause an increase in temperature in the next two decades, even if emissions were to be net immediately, according to the National Assessment of Climate of the united States” (NIC, 2021: 32, translation). In turn, “the physical effects of climate change in the hotter temperatures, rising sea levels and extreme weather events will affect all countries. The challenges and costs will fall disproportionately on the developing world, acting with the environmental degradation in order to intensify the risks to the food security, water, health and energy” (NIC, 2021: 30, translation).

Illustrative graphic of global GHG emissions of face-to-2060. Image credits: UNFCCC.

Paying attention to the regional and local level, to Latin america, the outlook for the future, if confirmed these trends, it is quite overwhelming as experts project that in the following years it is very likely that temperatures will continue to rise, and the increase is higher than the global average. Also, it is stated that the rainfall will be increasing in certain areas while they are scarce in others, causing widespread drought and water stress, and that the sea level rise will continue, impacting with serious flooding in low-lying coastal areas. Another factor to consider is the decreased levels of snow and ice and the volume of the glaciers of the cordillera of the andes, with the consequent increase of river flooding and overflow of glacial lakes. Finally, it highlights the potential impact of increased drought, aridity and fire in forest areas, agricultural and other ecosystems (IPCC, 2021 Regional Fact Sheet – Central and South America).

Illustrative images of the potential changes that face the region, according to the increase of global warming on different parameters.

Source: IPCC, 2021 Regional Fact Sheet – Central and South America.

There's No doubt that, in the face of these projections regional, Argentina will face multiple challenges in climate, which have a direct impact on different ecosystems and on the population, especially in groups that are more vulnerable and more exposed to the consequences of climate change, which many times do not have the resources necessary to combat such effects.

In connection with this is part of the problem for the first trend: concrete action is needed and committed to continue reducing ambitiously GHG emissions and able to meet the proposed objectives. But, one of the major drawbacks at the global level is that the commitments (and actions consequential) of the countries most pollutants are not sufficiently ambitious, which generates uncertainty, anger, and sometimes a “contagion” of non-involvement on the part of other countries, mainly developing ones, as they believe that their efforts are useless when the countries most contaminants do not take seriously the responsibility that falls to them. All of this evidence of serious flaws in multilateralism and international cooperation, which should be remedied in the coming years if we want to arrive at solutions and joint actions.

If we look at official data of the report of the Statistical Review of World Energy (SRWE) published in 2020 that analyzes the climatic situation of the previous year (i.e., 2019) we see that Argentina issued 175 million tonnes of Co2 in 2019 and accounted for 0.5% of the global emissions. Meanwhile, the Co2 emission of China was 9826 million tons, representing 28.8% of the global emissions total. We continued to the united States with an emission-4965 million tonnes of Co2 in 2019, equivalent to 14.5%. In the third place, it is ranked India with its issuance of 2480 tons of Co2 in that year, representing 7.3% of the world's emissions. Russia occupied the fourth place, with 1532 million tonnes of Co2 released in 2019, which was 4.5 per cent in the world, and Japan was in the fifth position with an issuance of 1123 million tons, representing 3.3% of the total. These past five countries are the biggest polluters of all, in relation to the emission of carbon dioxide (SRWE, 2020: 13).

Argentina submitted its second NDC in December 2020. In this document, it is highlighted that the participation of argentina in number of deals in environmental issues and climate change has been “active and uninterrupted” and points out that the multilateralism and international cooperation are the pathways favorite to address the challenges of the future. The concrete commitment of the Argentina of face-to-2030 is “a goal that would limit the emissions of greenhouse gases to a level 26% lower than the Contribution Determined National previously committed in 2016” (NDC Argentina, 2020: 4), a goal that is scored later as “absolute and unconditional” and “applicable to all sectors of the economy” (NDC Argentina, 2020: 6). Referring to the First Review of its Contribution Determined at the National Level in 2016, there had been established that our country would not exceed the net issuance of 483 million tons of Co2 in 2030. That is to say that, by that year, Argentina should not exceed the net issuance of 359 million (approximately) metric tons of Co2, thus keeping “in 2030, a participation rate of 0.9% compared to the global emissions” (NDC Argentina, 2020: 6). 

In turn, in this new NDC plasma is another long-term goal: “to achieve a development carbon neutral by the year 2050” (NDC Argentina, 2020: 4). This is part of the impulse toward “a transformation that is fair, ambitious and decidedly inclusive” and implies the consciousness “of the collective and individual responsibility to the respect of the environment” (NDC Argentina, 2020: 4). It is recognized that “Argentina is a country highly vulnerable, who need to adapt, given that it possesses a great diversity of areas susceptible to the effects of climate change” (NDC Argentina, 2020: 6), and, among some explicit examples, we mention the reduction in the flow of water from the Paraná basin as a decisive factor that is of concern to our country. 

Another of the commitments argentine is to try, by 2030, of “reducing vulnerability, increasing adaptive capacity and strengthen the resilience of the different sectors of social, economic and environmental measures of awareness and capacity building that will enable the country and its population to respond in solidarity with the urgent challenge of protecting the planet” (NDC Argentina, 2020: 6). 

This second NDC set fifteen governing principles “that will guide the design, implementation and monitoring of all actions of adaptation and mitigation national”, and some of them are: “Agenda 2030 and SDGS”, “federalization”, “health”, and “just transition”, “integrated management of risk”, “adaptation-based communities” and “ecosystems”, “innovation, science and technology”, “environmental education”, “energy security” and “food”, among others (NDC Argentina, 2020: 7). These, among others, are the key themes and trends that we should pay attention to in the coming years. Not only to assess their progress and compliance but also to detect faults and to be able to increase the ambition of climate in our international commitments, recognizing that the challenges we face are of a magnitude huge and require a response of no less if you want to reduce the weaknesses, risks, and threats.

Shocking picture of the water crisis in the Paraná river, in the middle of this year.

 Image credits: University of San Martin. 

In conclusion: The next few years will be crucial determinants in the way to prevent the disproportionate increase of the temperature at the end of the century, that is to say, above the 2 degrees celsius, or, more ambitiously, above 1.5 degree celsius on the basis of the above pre-industrial levels, in line with the Paris Agreement of 2015, of which our country is a party. Despite the fact that the trends will make a path very complicated in terms of environmental obligations, coercion multilateral must prevail and strengthened, with common but differentiated responsibilities. The challenge for the Republic of Argentina resides in meet and strengthen their commitments presented in the NDC before the COP, the IPCC and the UNFCCC, in a way that will incrementally increase the ambition of climate in our proposals and actions, and strengthening the international collaboration. On the basis of all this, the management of the climate crisis – which has a high incidence in our country, in various sectors and levels – might be better and more realistic.

B - The effects of competition RPC-USA Argentina 

Within the field of global governance and its consequent impact local fuel system to the effects of the rivalry multifaceted between the people's Republic of China and the united States of America. 

Contextualizing this situation, it is known that the competition between the two powers is not a new finding. The dispute over the leadership business, finance, technology, maritime, space, and even a diplomat is the order of the day. As such, there are several academics who dare to call this situation a “New Cold War”, although the arguments used to make that assessment may be questionable for others. 

The rivalry in the different areas is not only at an international level (macro), but it also manages to be inserted inside each of the regions of the world (micro). In the case of Latin America and the Caribbean, with some exceptions, personal and historical, it has been found (in its origins, from the mid-NINETEENTH century approximately, but more thoroughly since the middle of the last century), a pre-eminence american to make alliances, and enter into the regional balance. But, given the spectacular growth of the people's Republic of China in the last time, in several senses, and his remarkable and growing influence in the region, it can be argued that the hegemony in Latin america of the united States of America is still disputed. 

It is understood that “it is likely that the soft power and China's diplomatic in the region to increase as it engages with the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), which excludes the united States and Canada” (FIU&GAL, 2018: 14, translation). In addition, China “has already been invited to the region to participate in their initiative “One Belt, One Road”, which will help in infrastructure investment and will increase the contacts and exchanges in education and cultural students and leaders”, clear initiatives with elements of soft power (FIU&GAL, 2018: 14, translation). In that line, the trends suggest that the united States “will continue to be a key partner for the region, but it is likely that its domain is reduced, while China will be a business partner and investor increasingly important” due to the growing demand for goods and services by a Chinese in constant economic expansion (Ministry of Defence UK, 2018: 243, translation). 

In turn, although the united States currently remains the largest international investor in the region and is expected to “continue to be an important trade partner, generating 20% of the flows of foreign direct investment in the region”, it is recognized that in recent years Latin america has “substantially increased trade with China as part of its drive to diversify its partners” (i.e., increasing and diversifying the markets the destination of their exports of products such as soy, iron, oil and copper) and China “have been made, or it has been proposed to perform, investment in regional projects”, in particular in infrastructure, public services and extractive industries, increasing significantly the asian investment in the region and this trend is expected to grow in the future (Ministry of Defence UK, 2018: 248, translation).

It is worth mentioning that, since the Monitor of the infrastructure of china in Latin America and the Caribbean 2020 by the investigator Enrique Dussel Peters, stated that “Argentina has received since 2005 investment projects in infrastructure by the government of China, for over 30,600 million us dollars, which represented up to 2019 the 39% of the total commitment to the asian country in Latin America and the Caribbean”, this being the highest percentage for a country of the region (Télam, 2020). 

For its part, now both governments are in the process of negotiation as “agreements of cooperation and investment in the green economy and digital,” and it is important to highlight the first participation of our country in the International Fair of Trade in Services in China, which took place in the month of September. (Télam, 2021).

Already in 2018, “in seven Latin american countries, China has(bía) passed the united States as the main destination for exports, and in five of those countries —Brazil, Chile, Cuba, Peru, and Uruguay— China (was) the largest export market” (FIU&GAL, 2018: 14, translation). The trade relations between China and Argentina continue to grow, to the point of strengthening China in 2021 as our second most important trading partner, behind the neighboring Brazil. 

From the Ministry of Productive Development, in march of this year it was reported that, according to data provided by the INDEC, “bilateral trade increased five-fold from 2003 to 2020, when you spend u$s3.200 million to$14.000 million, after reaching u$s16.000 million in 2019” and that “last year, China accounted for 9.8% of the total external sales of Argentina (or$s54.884 million) (concentrated in soybeans, oil, meat, vegetable oils, shellfish and seafood) and 20.4% of imports arranged by the country (or$42.356 million)” (Scope, 2021). The Minister Kulfas stated that “China is not only a strategic partner of Argentina, but also is a fundamental part of the new economic reality international” (Scope, 2021).

This, according to the Center for International Economics, conferred by the Argentine ministry of foreign affairs, positioning China as the second largest trading partner of the country behind only Brazil, moving to the united States to third place. However, its importance is not less so in 2020 “exports to the united States totaled 3.313 billion and imports reached 4.414 million dollars” being the trade deficit 1.101 million dollars (INDEC, 2021: 23).

Also, according to the Department of State of the country, more than 300 u.s. companies operating in Argentina, leaving the US as one of the main investors in the country with more than USD $10,7 billion foreign direct investment since 2019 (US Department of State, 2021).

With figures relating to the cumulative period of January-may of this year, the table shows the three main partners, Argentina: Brazil, China and the united States. 

Source: Center for International Economics, foreign affairs, Argentina.

Linked to this, and, in virtue of the balance of power in the region, which is usually linked to economic success, it asserts that “political relations can, to some extent, follow the trade alliances, as EE. UU. change your approach to the region and the asian countries, especially China, continue to invest in Latin America” (Ministry of Defence UK, 2018: 249, translation). But, it is also understood that the general trade of our region with the united States will continue to be relatively stable and the security interests of the u.s. in Latin America are, and will continue to be “long-lasting” (Ministry of Defence UK, 2018: 249, translation).

In terms of the “diplomacy of vaccines, both China and the united States seeking to establish itself as key partners in the region, increasing the supply and agreements with the countries of Latin america and the rivalry between the two powers for this look is estimated to continue to grow. In regards to Argentina, because for the month of August 2021, it is estimated that in total had been received from laboratories chinese 18 million vaccinations (Sinopharm and Cansino), while the united States had donated 3.5 million of vaccine Moderna (Profile, August 2021). A short time later, Argentina and the united States agreed to a contract for a total of 20.5 million doses of Pfizer, to be received until the month of December of this year (Ministry of Health, September 2021). In the meantime, continue to arrive vaccines in china. 

The trend in this regard is that the rivalry sino-american in the “diplomacy of vaccines,” Argentina and the region continues its course in the next few years.

Given all of these aspects analyzed on the dynamics emerging in relation to the second trend, we can problematize the situation by asking you a few questions, that I will seek to answer them in the next paper. 

  • How do you define the alliances today between Argentina and the people's Republic of China? and what is done with the united States? 
  • Is there a long-term vision to strengthen these partnerships, primarily off of the growing commercial relationship with China?
  • How are compromised national interests in the relationships that our country has with both powers?
  • From now on, how can you act and position themselves strategically in the Argentine Republic to the rivalry in world sino-american, who also claims to be “hot” in our region? What can be taken advantage of some of their consequences or is it better to be prudent before the geopolitics of today?
  • What approach should I adopt our foreign policy to such an international situation? 
  • What might be game for one or another option? Could you, in the XXI century, understood to international relations and trade as a zero-sum game (in this case, China's “win” with Argentina is that the united States “lost”), or such a vision is not appropriate to analyze advantages and disadvantages of the links of our country with the great powers?
  • In case of answering this last question in the affirmative, can we really afford the costs of alignment unilateral with one of the two powers, rejecting the opportunities that the other has to offer? What are those costs?

In conclusion: Due to the context of rivalry in the global and multifaceted between the people's Republic of China and the united States of America and to the increase of the economic and diplomatic leverage china in the Latin american region and in the Republic of Argentina, the challenge our country is facing the dilemma of how to position itself in such a situation, assessing risks, opportunities, costs and benefits that such a decision would entail. Argentina is very attractive due to their important geo-strategic and the amount of natural resources that it has, a fact that also makes us vulnerable to claims from foreign countries. One of the major challenges is to develop a foreign policy that adapts to the current circumstances, but that in no time to stop to prioritize the national interest strategic. The next few years, according to the trends analysed, will be witnesses of the consolidation of a “coexistence competitive” between both powers, so take hasty decisions or take steps in fake about this issue can have high costs to our country. That is why it is necessary, in my opinion, a policy of pragmatic and cautious that you can take advantage of the benefits that both countries have to offer. This will be developed in more detail in the next document.

C - argentina Society: distrust, polarization, and (re)configuration of the identities 

Within the scope of local governance, I seek to analyze whether it is manifest in the argentine society of the dynamics in the emerging general on a global level in terms of the political polarization, the new identities and the mistrust of politicians.

In contextsome global trends indicate that there is an evident growth of movements “exclusivist and nationalist” that affect the social cohesion and political stability, while increasing social polarization (Arteaga, 2021). That's in addition to the influence of misinformation that circulates at high speeds in the network (in other words, one can speak of fake news) and some “hate speech” on the part of leaders, political or not, but with a big impact on democratic practices. 

In turn, it could be said that the pandemic of COVID-19 revealed many weaknesses of different devices: the international system and the multilateral cooperation; health systems at all levels; the democratic political system that many times was unable to process (in terms of David Easton) citizen demands increasingly ambitious, among others. Also, it reinforced the idea of trade protectionism and social, giving impetus to trends discriminatory and xenophobic, even within the same country, to different communities.

In Latin America, some analyses indicate that it will strengthen governments cut populist and a “poor governance and political scandals of high-level”, a reflection of a corruption rooted in Latin american politics, can be triggers to exacerbate social unrest (Ministry of Defence UK, 2018: 248, translation). Other examples in Latin america, the problems of local governance derived from the great influence of the drug cartels and other actors involved in organized crime. 

In any case, it is stated that at the global level “communities are increasingly fragmented, as people seek safety with like minded groups based on identities established and new; the States of all types and in all regions are struggling to meet the needs and expectations of people more connected, more urban and more empowered” (NIC, 2021: 1, translation of its own). Also, the social fragmentation is often based on “disputes on matters economic, cultural and political,” and part of the world's population has an attitude of wary respect the institutions of government since many times they have major failures in addressing the overall needs of the peoples (NIC, 2021: 7-8, translation). As a result, the gaps between “demand” citizen “and " offer” state-created a climate of tension widespread among societies and governments that, for the worse, it is very difficult to reverse. Or, at least, requires very high degrees of mutual trust, an aspect that seems to be missing in our region and in our country. 

That gap is deepened when the citizenship is very politically active and has the incentive and capacity to fight for different causes demanding solutions to their governments that are increasingly under pressure. And, in the best of cases there were no corruption involved, the resources available to States to promote public policies according to the demands of their populations, they are sometimes not enough to overcome those barriers. Sometimes, that gap brings “more volatility, policy, erosion of democracy and role in the expansion for alternative providers of governance”, different to the democratic practices that both time led him to the region to consolidate (NIC, 2021: 8, translation).

To this can be added to the “crisis of the systems of traditional political parties”, due to the citizens ' mistrust in them and in the “political class”, which leads you to be an ever-mostly elected to various political posts, “new leaders, and even outsiders, are candidates for anti-system (...) or anti-democratic, looking for a true change” (FIU&GAL, 2018: 17, translation of its own). This can be read as a trend that is currently consolidating in the region, if we consider as an example the choice of the current brazilian president, Jair Bolsonaro in 2018, or the choice surprising economist of the extreme right is Javier Milei as a pre-candidate for national deputy in Argentina in September of 2021.

In the identities, there is a tendency to be in constant (re)configuration and consolidation around the issues “ethnic, religious and cultural, as well as the groups around interests and causes, such as environmentalism” (NIC, 2021: 8, translation). According to this view, sometimes far from being a matter of diversity beneficial and enriching to the States, emphasizes that “the combination of new and diverse loyalties of identity and an environment of information more isolated is exposing and exacerbating fault lines in the united states, undermining nationalism, civic and increasing volatility” (NIC, 2021: 8, translation).

Other causes of division and social tension within the countries are the gaps “of income, wealth, education, social mobility, prosperity, and political advantages” that, in case of failure to remedy their causes (and not just their “symptoms”), such inequities “could lead to instability” (Ministry of Defence UK, 2018: 15, translation).

The Argentine Republic is no exception to these global diagnostics. Mainly, showed a certain fractures in the institutional order that led to that, at times, questioning the health of democracy in argentina. In relation to the citizens ' mistrust linked with the corruption index of Transparency International 2020 notes that Argentina is ranked 78 of 180, with an average of 42 points out of 100, where 1 is “highly corrupt” and 100 is “very transparent”. While it is not in a position as low as other countries in the region, if we look in absolute terms, the index is of great importance and is a thermometer of the temperature of the social that is expressed by this pathway as a paradigmatic example.

In view of the last primary election legislation in Argentina, it is worth noting the fact of electoral participation. According to the Ministry of the Interior, almost 34.5 million citizens were eligible to vote, only did a little more than 22.7 million, constituting 66% of the electoral roll. While it is true that in the elections STEP the percentage of voter turnout tends to be lower than in general elections, and even more in the case of legislative elections mid-term, and in the context of a pandemic, we must not lose sight of that was the voter turnout, the lowest since the system was implemented in 2011. In 2017, the attendance at the STEP had been a 72.3 per cent, or more than 6 percentage points above that in this last occasion (Télam, 2021). Another issue to consider were the high levels of the white vote, for example, with a percentage close to 4.5% in the Province of Buenos Aires and 9.5% in Mendoza.

The last election campaign was framed in a context of distrust, discontent, and political apathy. With a country hard hit by the pandemic of COVID-19, the politicians (current and aspiring to public office) must figure out how to try to draw the attention and capture the vote of citizens that little or nothing they want to know with politics in general. In general, the models of campaign featured in this year were very far from being the best because it lacked substance and concrete proposals in many speeches with empty messages, and some others to the reality of the country. It should not be forgotten that the election results are a snapshot of the moment, that reflect the approval or disapproval of citizenship in respect of the management of a government and of the opposition, giving rewards and punishments election. I don't even encourage you to do questions for within a few years, rather how they will continue to political campaigns, by the way, very least, ahead of the elections in mid-November of this year?

Then from the analysis presented, I understand that one of the problems main local governance is widespread distrust of politicians, political parties, such as apparatus or a figure of the political as such, beyond people policies individualized. All of this leads to the question: does the distrust and discontent with the political becomes also in distrust of the policy or, worse, to the democratic system? What says the political and ideological polarization of the health of a democratic society? How to interpret the call identity “libertarian” made in the Federal Capital around the figure of the controversial and extremist Javier Milei, who made a historic first election, garnering 13% of the votes? What happens to the legitimacy of the democratic power? Do you believe that there is an alternative to the democratic system? What are the demands of citizens who have and will have priority in the coming years? Does the gap between the demands of citizens and government bids will increase, as indicated by the trends analysed? How can you rule in this context and with all these challenges? How will these trends in the future and what can be done about it?

In conclusion: Taking as a reference the central aspects of the last general election in our country (that is to say, the choice STEP: Primary, Open, Simultaneous, and Obligatory, in September of 2021 and in the general election to be developed in mid-November 2021) – such as rates of citizen participation and blank votes and invalid, in addition to models of political campaign – the challenge for the proper governance of the Republic of Argentina is to understand various issues that make the electorate and, on this basis, to assess not only the electoral performance but also the efforts of government and project into the future possible changes after the health and vitality of democracy in argentina. In view of the latter will be presented in the next paper.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

US Department of State (2021): 2021 Investment Climate Statements: Argentina. Last accessed October 14. Retrieved from the link: https://www.state.gov/reports/2021-investment-climate-statements/argentina/

@2020 by Fundación Argentina Global

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